Have a Canada Day, George Springer.
The Blue Jays and Yankees are in the midst of a crucial four-game series this week, as Toronto currently finds itself just a single game back of the Bronx Bombers in the race for the AL East crown. The Blue Jays have already taken the first two contests, thanks in no small part to Springer, who finished yesterday’s 12-5 victory with seven RBI — four of which came on a massive seventh inning grand slam to bust the game open.
Can New York bounce back on Wednesday? Or will Toronto move into a tie atop the division? Let’s preview this huge matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
Despite winning the last two games and despite being the home team, the Blue Jays are listed as underdogs on the DraftKings Sportsbook on Wednesday evening. It’s a little confusing, especially given that the Yankees are 6-12 in their last 18 contests. So it’s not like New York has been playing its best baseball as of late.
One reason for the lack of respect might be the presence of Jose Berrios. The 31-year-old RHP just isn’t someone who is ever going to be adored by the advanced stats, as he is once again in possession of a much better ERA (3.26) than xERA (4.55) so far in 2025. That makes bettors uneasy with the veteran, and it’s not like there aren’t a couple red flags. Berrios has an 18th percentile barrel rate (10.5%) and his 80.8% strand rate is not exactly backed up by an elite strikeout rate (21.4%). Still, the right-hander has been nothing if not marvellous across the past month. Dating back to May 29, Berrios has registered a 1.66 ERA and a 2.98 FIP. It’s a span of time where he’s dropped his walk rate to a far more respectable 7.7% and he’s held opponents to a .245 wOBA. It’s also a stretch where Berrios has posted a scoreless outing in four of his six appearances. Heck, he comes into tonight’s tilt having tossed 14.2 straight scoreless innings. At a certain point, the raw results do matter.
That said, Berrios is not the only starter that enters this important AL East battle on a heater. Will Warren threw five scoreless frames in his last outing on Friday, continuing what has been a very impressive rookie campaign. Warren’s only managed 80.1 total innings in his 17 starts, yet a massive 29.6% strikeout rate has translated into a sterling 2.87 FIP. Warren’s been even more dominant specific to his last four outings, pitching to a 1.96 ERA and a 1.70 FIP. It’ll be quite interesting to see if Warren can keep mustering his elite swing-and-miss numbers against a Toronto lineup that owns MLB’s lowest team strikeout rate (17.6%). That figure is for the season as a whole, too. Over the past two weeks, the Blue Jays have struck out in only 15.0% of their plate appearances. It’s fire versus ice on Wednesday night.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
Best Bet: Aaron Judge 2+ Runs (+400)
Judge has five career home runs off Berrios. Worst case, the Jays keep choosing to walk him and he’s got a chance to score some runs that way.
Strong Lean: Blue Jays ML (+104)
Toronto is 10-6 as a home dog in 2025. It has also won five of its last six games overall.
