Major League Baseball has 10 games under the lights on Wednesday night, providing plenty of drama and storylines to enjoy. One great way to get a piece of the action is by picking out a few home run props that make sense based on matchup, environment and a player’s current form. After looking at the home run props on the board for Wednesday’s action, my top three home run props are from Jo Adell, Cam Smith and Will Smith.
Just a quick reminder before we dive into the home run props and swing from our heels — all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in less than half of their games, home run props are never “safe” picks, even if every single factor seems to indicate a dinger is on deck.
The upside and fun part of grabbing home run props is that the long odds mean big returns when they do hit. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your hitters goes yard — get those QTs and RTs ready on X! Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on. It also makes sense to use these home run props with other picks in SGPs or parlay plays. I also like to play them at small money in round robins, boosting their upside even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Wednesday.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jo Adell to record 1+ home runs (+295)
Adell and the Angels are in Atlanta, taking on the Braves on Wednesday night, with the wind forecasted to be blowing out. It’s a great matchup for the Halos against Braves rookie Didier Fuentes, who has looked not quite ready for the majors in his two starts this season.
Fuentes has allowed 10 runs on 14 hits, including three home runs, over his 8 1/3 innings. He is 0-2 with a 52.9% hard hit rate against him and the highest HR/9 of any starting pitcher on this slate. He had a 54.5% hard hit rate in his brief stop at Triple-A and had a 0-7 record in nine minor league starts this season. The 20-year-old has a bright future, but he doesn’t seem ready to deliver quite yet, making this a good spot to target for home run props.
Adell has been the Halos’ best power hitter lately, with 11 home runs in his 27 games since June 1. Five of those blasts have come in his last 12 games, while hitting .348 with a .485 wOBA and 55.6% hard hit rate. He has at least one hard hit batted ball event in 11 of his last 12 games, with an average exit velocity of 90.5 miles per hour.
Of his 18 homers this season, 14 have come against right-handed pitchers like Fuentes. With how productive he has been lately and his matchup against Fuentes, getting Adell at almost 3-to-1 odds feels like great value.
Cam Smith to record 1+ home runs (+285)
The second of our home run props comes from the homer haven of Coors Field, where the Astros visit the Rockies and face lefty Austin Gomber. The weather in Denver is expected to be warm with a slight breeze blowing out, good hitting conditions for both sides.
Of the two starting pitchers, Gomber is the better option to target, especially with the Rockies’ shaky bullpen behind him. He has allowed three homers in his 14 2/3 innings this year, with a 14.5% barrel rate against him in his limited action. All of those homers have been hit by right-handed hitters, who have a .444 wOBA against him this season. Last year, 21 of the 30 homers he allowed were to righties, who had a .351 wOBA against him.
Smith has been one of the Astros’ best hitters after adjusting to the majors early in the season. Here’s how good he was in June:
Over his last 13 games, he has four homers while hitting .380 with a 54.1% hard hit rate and average exit velocity over 90 miles per hour. He has hit four of his seven homers this season off left-handed pitchers like Gomber, and has a .433 wOBA in the split along with an impressive 185 wRC+.
Smith has at least one hard hit batted ball event in 16 of his last 17 games, and has at least one hit with an exit velocity over 100 miles per hour in 13 of his last 16. With so much loud contact lately and a favorable matchup, Smith is a good play to go yard on Wednesday night in such a homer-friendly spot.
Will Smith to record 1+ home runs (+320)
Cam isn’t the only Smith I have in my top home run props for this Wednesday night. I included Dodgers catcher Will Smith in my top MLB DFS plays for the day, and I think he’s in a strong spot to go long tonight, as well.
While he sometimes gets lost in the shadow of Shohei Ohtani (+160) and his 30 homers, Smith has also been a very productive part of the Dodgers’ offense this season. He has been especially sharp at home, where he has a .353 batting average, six homers and a .438 wOBA.
He has four long balls in his last 10 games, including this memorable walk-off at home against the Padres.
In his last 10 contests, he has a 50% hard hit rate and 25% barrel rate, along with an excellent average exit velocity over 93 miles per hour.
He should be in a good spot to stay hot against White Sox opener lefty Brandon Eisert ($4,000) and bulk reliever Sean Burke ($5,500). Burke has allowed 12 homers in 16 games, and six of those homers have come in his 34 innings on the road, where righties have posted a .388 wOBA against him.
While you could take Shohei’s shorter odds in the same matchup if you want, I prefer taking Smith as the last of my three home run props. You get a little longer odds and still get a hitter who is catching plenty of barrels.
