This is the finale of a three-game series in Miami between the Marlins and visiting Minnesota Twins.
David Festa is scheduled to pitch for the Minnesota while Eury Perez should get the nod for Miami.
Twins at Marlins prediction, preview
David Festa was pretty good in his first MLB stint last season, pitching 64.1 innings and posting a 27.8% strikeout rate and 3.76 FIP. Through 36.2 innings this season, it’s been a rougher experience. The strikeout rate is down to 23.3%, the walk rate is 9.2%, the FIP is 4.7 and he’s allowed six home runs. The average exit velocity is 90.2 mph, barrel rate is 10.4% and the hard hit rate is 41.5%.
Festa has reverse splits, as right-handed batters have had more success. The FIP is 5.25 compared to 4.16 against lefties and four of the six home runs have come off the bat of righties. Festa has also been worse on the road.
Festa has pitched over five innings twice. In his most recent outing, he went 5.2 innings, struck out six and only allowed two hits. That said, he has two starts in which he allowed eight earned runs in both. This will be the first time facing the Marlins this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Marlins have struck out at the 17th-highest rate while having the 23rd-best ISO. The wOBA is 16th-best in MLB.
Eury Perez underwent Tommy John surgery in April of 2024. He got his first taste of MLB action in 2023, pitching 91.1 innings and posting a strikeout rate of 28.9% and a walk rate of 8.3%. He allowed 15 home runs. The ERA was 3.15 but it wasn’t supported by the 4.11 FIP. He averaged 97.4 mph on the fastball. It takes time for pitchers after undergoing TJ, so it shouldn’t be surprising that Perez is struggling so far this season. The fastball is averaging 98.2 mph, but in 16 innings, the strikeout rate is only 19.4% while the walk rate is 13.9%. The ERA is 6.19, but he’s been unlucky. The strand rate is only 57.5% while the FIP is much lower at 4.02.
Perez has pitched three, four, 4.2 and 4.1 innings so far. He won’t be pushed and shouldn’t be counted for much more than that for now. This will be the first time facing Minnesota this season.
The Twins have struck out at the 20th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 12th in ISO. The wOBA is 18th-best.
As for bullpens, Minnesota has the second-lowest FIP while Miami has the 21st-lowest.
Twins at Marlins, Best Bet
When Festa is on the mound, an offensive explosion of epic proportions is always in play. That said, I have little faith that the Marlins can provide enough thrust. And Minnesota has one of the best bullpens in MLB. The control for Perez will likely continue being an issue for a while as he recovers from TJ surgery. And he is likely on a pitch count so the Twins offense will see plenty of a Marlins bullpen that isn’t great.
