The PGA TOUR heads to Silvis, Illinois, this week for the John Deere Classic. TPC Deere Run will be the host course and measures as a 7,289-yard par 71 with Bentgrass greens.
We have another full-field event this week with 156 golfers and a 36-hole cut. Ben Griffin is the current betting favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook at +1600, while Jason Day (+2500), Denny McCarthy (+2500) and Michael Thorbjornsen (+3000) round out the top of the odds board.
Below I have outlined my two favorite bets for the week.
Michael Thorbjornsen to win (+3000)
Thorbjornsen is an up-and-coming 23-year-old fireballer that is going to win on the PGA TOUR sooner rather than later. He posted his second top-five finish of the season last week at the Rocket Classic with a T4. Earlier in the year he finished T2 at the Corales Puntacana Championship, which like the Rocket Classic, is a weaker-field type birdie fest.
He’s already shown to love TPC Deere Run as well, having played here each of the past two years while posting finishes of T17 and T2. Albeit a small sample, Thorbjornsen ranks second in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green per round at this course, trailing only Luke Clanton. However, when you filter for golfers who have played this event more than once, Thorbjornsen ranks first.
He gained at least 1.1 strokes in each major Strokes Gained category last week in Detroit, including 5.6 on the greens. Thor is a bomber who can pour in a ton of birdies, so it’s quite logical to see the success he’s had at this event. Overall, he ranks fourth in this field in driving distance and fifth in birdies per round, both over his past 48 rounds.
Thorbjornsen is checking a ton of boxes this week and feels absolutely primed to pick up his first win here. I really like anchoring a card with him.
Cameron Champ to win (+8000)
Champ pops up a few times a year these days and plays well at events like this. He’s currently in the midst of his best stretch of golf of the season, having posted three top-20 finishes across his past six starts. The best of these came two starts ago at the RBC Canadian Open where he would finish T9
His numbers during this stretch are just what we want to see from the three-time PGA TOUR winner as we head to another birdie fest. Champ ranks second in this field in SG: Off-the-Tee (third in driving distance) and 24th in SG: Putting over his past 24 rounds. There are multiple ways to attack TPC Deere Run, but the longer hitters will always have an advantage, especially on the three par 5s.
Despite his skillset, Champ actually has pretty poor history at the John Deere, having missed the cut in three of his five career starts. He does have a T11 finish back in 2021, however, so the ceiling is clearly there.
We know Champ is going to put himself in great position off the tee and make his share of putts, but whether or not he wins is going to come down to how he hits his irons. Thankfully, he’s been pretty good in that department lately, gaining on approach in four of his past five starts.
It’s been three years since Champ last won a PGA TOUR event, but he’s playing well right now and sets up great this week. At 80/1 there is very little downside here.