The PGA TOUR travels to TPC Deere Run (par 71, 7,289 yards, bentgrass greens) in Silvis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic. This field consists of 156 golfers. There will be a top-65 and ties cut after the first two rounds.
Below, I have featured some head-to-head tournament matchup bets to consider for the John Deere Classic.
Top John Deere Classic Matchup Picks
Denny McCarthy over J.T. Poston (-115)
McCarthy heads to TPC Deere Run in better form than Poston. Both of these players last competed at the Travelers Championship, and McCarthy finished T12th, while Poston finished T45th of the 72-man field. McCarthy has yet to miss a cut in 16 starts this season, and he has recorded eight top-25 finishes. As for Poston, he has made 17-of-19 cuts and produced six top-25 finishes. In total strokes gained this season, McCarthy ranks 44th, compared to Poston, who ranks 60th.
As for course history at TPC Deere Run, Poston may be a previous winner at this par 71, but McCarthy has the better overall resume at this venue. Poston has made 5-of-7 cuts at TPC Deere Run with two top-10 finishes, while McCarthy has made 4-fo-6 cuts at the track with three top-10 finishes. In strokes gained per round at TPC Deere Run, McCarthy is averaging 1.65, which is far better than Poston at 0.88.
McCarthy’s +2500 odds to win the John Deere Classic on DraftKings Sportsbook are shorter than Poston at +3000, and getting McCarthy to win this matchup at these -115 odds is highway robbery.
Chris Kirk over Jake Knapp (-115)
While both Kirk and Knapp are playing great golf right now, Kirk has the upper hand in current form. Knapp’s last two starts are encouraging, with a T27 at the RBC Canadian Open and T4 in the Rocket Classic, but these results don’t compare to the last two finishes from Kirk. After finishing T12th at the U.S. Open, which was played at the extremely difficult Oakmont CC, Kirk nearly picked up his seventh PGA TOUR win at the Rocket Classic last week, as he lost in a three-man playoff to Aldrich Potgieter. When we compare this field’s last eight rounds, no player has gained more strokes than Kirk, while Knapp ranks ninth.
These players now head to TPC Deere Run, which is a venue Kirk has a long history of succeeding at, while Knapp has minimal previous experience at the course. Kirk has made 6-of-7 cuts at TPC Deere Run with five top-30 finishes, while Knapp has only teed it up at this track once, when he finished T57th at last year’s John Deere Classic.
TPC Deere Run is a shot course. Being accurate with your wedges is essential at this easy venue. Specifically, 22% of approach shots at the last five John Deere Classics have come from 125-150 yards out and Kirk has been terrific from this distance this season, ranking 17th in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 125-150 yards, while Knapp has struggled, ranking 95th.
Kirk has an advantage over Knapp in almost every department this week, and Kirk is a must-bet to win this matchup at this reasonable -115 price.
