The PGA TOUR remains in the Midwest this week for the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run (par 71, 7,289 yards, bentgrass greens) in Silvis, Illinois. There will be 156 golfers competing and a top-65 and ties cut after the first two rounds. Below, I have featured two of my favorite longshot outright bets to win the John Deere Classic on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Emiliano Grillo +7000
Emiliano Grillo finished runner-up at the 2022 John Deere Classic and he returns to TPC Deere Run in better form this time around. In 2022, Grillo was coming off a missed cut prior to the John Deere Classic. This year, he arrives in Silvis as the maker of five straight cuts and four of these finishes have been top-25 results, most notably with a T-19 at the U.S. Open. Grillo’s irons have been awesome recently, with him ranking third in SG APP when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds.
Plus, the 32-year-old ranks 15th in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 125-150 yards out this season, which is sensational news for TPC Deere Run. At the last five John Deere Classics, 22% of the approach shots at TPC Deere Run have come from 125-150 yards.
Another encouraging sign for Grillo is that he ranks first in 400-450-yard par four efficiency when we analyze this field’s last 24 rounds. Five of the 11 par fours at TPC Deere Run range from 400-450 yards and each of the last six John Deere Classic champions have finished the event top-five in efficiency on the 400-450-yard par fours of TPC Deere Run. Grillo is a two-time PGA TOUR winner and if he can get hot with his putter this week, the Argentinian professional absolutely could contend for a win in this weak field.
Chan Kim +11000
Chan Kim finished T-12 in his first attempt at TPC Deere Run last season while gaining strokes in every major category. The 35-year-old opened this start with an 8-under 63 at TPC Deere Run, which is Kim’s career-low on the PGA TOUR.
Fast forward a year later and the veteran travels to Silvis this week on the heels of a T-19 at the Rocket Classic. Kim gained strokes across the board at Detroit Golf Club and he finished -20 for the event. Five of the last six victors at TPC Deere Run have shot -21 or lower, so Kim will face similar low-scoring conditions this week.
Kim has finished inside the top-20 four times this season and he was close to winning at the Valero Texas Open in April, where he finished T-5. Kim faces a far weaker field at the John Deere Classic this week and him securing the first PGA TOUR victory of his career isn’t out the question. These +11000 odds are simply too long for Kim this week and he is worth taking a flier on at this number.
