When the bracket was revealed for the CONCACAF Gold Cup, it looked as if this semifinal was going to be a battle between the United States and Canada. That marquee matchup crumbled when Guatemala, a nation ranked just 106th in the world, ousted the Canadians on penalties, while the Stars and Stripes survived a scare to knock out Costa Rica in a shootout.
The United States and Guatemala will meet tonight at 7 p.m. ET in St. Louis, with the winner advancing to Sunday’s final to face the winner between Mexico and Honduras. It would be America’s 13th appearance in the Gold Cup final and Guatemala’s third, though they haven’t made it since 1969 — an edition that did not include the United States.
The United States is a -360 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Guatemala at +950 and a draw at +475. The hosts are -800 to advance, with the visitors +500.
United States vs. Guatemala prediction, pick
On paper, this shouldn’t be competitive. The United States’ Gold Cup squad has a combined market value of 174.3 million Euros, while Guatemala’s is worth 8.3 million. Rubio Rubin, who has thus far been Los Chapines’ best player, currently plays in the second-tier USL Championship after flaming out in the Eredivisie, MLS, and Liga MX. That’s a far cry from the track record of the Americans’ best player, Malik Tillman, who had 14 goal contributions in 22 starts for an Eindhoven side that won its second straight Eredivisie title.
However, as the concurrent FIFA Club World Cup has demonstrated time and time again, football isn’t played on paper. In that tournament, two Brazilian teams and a Saudi team are in the quarterfinals at the expense of European giants, and every major tournament, club or international, has at least one Cinderella story. Guatemala’s charge to the semifinals has to be one of the most inspirational runs in football history, but it shouldn’t be a complete shock; Los Chapines sit second in their World Cup qualifying group, with the best goal difference in the group through four matches, and though they lost 3-0 to Jamaica in qualifying, they got them back six days later with a 1-0 win in the Gold Cup.
Guatemala genuinely outplayed a strong Canada side in the quarterfinals, notching 11 shots to the Reds’ five and controlling 58% of the possession. They clearly took the match seriously, too, playing Jonathan David for the first 91 minutes, Tajon Buchanan for the first 58, and Alistair Johnston for all of it. Left midfielder Jacob Shaffelburg clearly didn’t help himself by picking up two yellows before halftime, but given the talent disparity between the sides, a shorthanded Canada and a full-strength Guatemala should be at worst a 50-50 affair. Los Chapines should feel confident going against a United States team that got just four of its 18 shots on target against Costa Rica and needed a penalty shootout masterclass by New York City FC goalie Matt Freese just to go through.
Though they haven’t been convincing at all times, the Americans have been the best squad at the tournament, and though advancement to the semifinals didn’t look certain after back-to-back embarrassing defeats in pre-tournament friendlies, Mauricio Pochettino has figured something out. Tillman, who’s likely to make the 2026 World Cup squad, looks sharp, and 24-year-olds Max Arfsten and Patrick Agyemang have made their cases for spots on the 2026 roster. Freese is also tied for fourth in the tournament in save percentage so far, and I think he’ll do just enough to shut down a confident Guatemalan front.
