The Braves have been wildly disappointing after entering the season with expectations to compete for the NL East title. As July begins, they’re in fourth place and a half game back from the Marlins.
The struggles continue even with Ronald Acuna’s return to the diamond. They play the Angels tonight in the second game of a three-game series. Los Angeles won the first game 4-0.
Atlanta is a -126 favorite on the moneyline, and the game total is set at over/under 9.5 runs on DraftKings Sportsbook. Los Angeles is a +104 underdog.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Wednesday’s Braves vs. Angeles matchup.
Braves vs. Angels prediction
When is it time to give up on the Braves’ season? They had high expectations for the year, but have been incredibly underwhelming through the first few months.
Acuna is back after missing a majority of last season, but his return hasn’t turned the tides for Atlanta. He’s been excellent, however. The former MVP is slashing .350/.467/.610 through 35 games, which is a small sample size but impressive nonetheless.
The rest of the offense? Fairly disappointing. The team has scored just 339 runs, which is the seventh fewest in the majors this year. On the bright side, Atlanta has only allowed 331 runs despite losing Max Fried in free agency and Chris Sale to injury.
The Braves won’t have a superior arm on the mound tonight, though. They’re starting Didier Fuentes, a 20-year-old, making his third career start in the majors. He’s allowed 10 runs, 14 hits and three home runs in 8.1 innings.
The Angels, who have been mediocre as advertised, are sitting at .500. They’re starting veteran Yusei Kikuchi, who is having a great year with the club. Kikuchi owns a 2.79 ERA through 96.2 innings. He’s coming off a stellar performance in which he struck out 12 over seven innings against the Red Sox.
The game prior he struck out nine and allowed two earned runs, both of which came via the long ball, in seven innings against the Astros. His strikeout numbers have been up in recent games, posting 10, nine and 12 in his last three starts.
Braves vs. Angeles pick, best bet
The Angels have the pitching advantage, so I’m leaning into that for tonight’s best bet. Kikuchi has been on fire with his strikeouts lately, and I believe he’ll continue that tonight against the Braves.
Atlanta averages the 11th most strikeouts per game with 8.58. It’s not as egregious as the Rockies’ MLB-worst 9.91 per game, but it’s still in the bottom half of the majors. Over the past three games, the Braves are averaging 11 strikeouts per contest, which lines up nicely with their matchup against Kikuchi.
Kikuchi’s standard strikeout prop line is set at over/under 5.5 strikeouts, valued at -125. That’s an easy play, but there’s plenty of room to ladder this up to 10 strikeouts. The 5.5 line is the safest, while the 10+ prop is the riskiest but provides the largest payout. Play the ladder how you see fit.
Here’s a breakdown of each tier’s odds.
Best Bet: Yusei Kikuchi strikeout ladder
- 6+ strikeouts (-125)
- 7+ strikeouts (+165)
- 8+ strikeouts (+330)
- 9+ strikeouts (+650)
- 10+ strikeouts (+1300)