My MLB Picks for July 1, 2025, will feature some of my favorite player props and team picks. All of these bets can be found on DraftKings Sportsbook. You can view the relevant page by clicking on the headline for each bet.
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MLB Picks: Player Props and Team Props for Tuesday, July 1, 2025
Wilyer Abreu 2+ total bases -110 vs. Cincinnati Reds
Abreu had a huge night at Fenway on Monday, blasting two home runs—including an inside-the-park homer—and driving in five runs. He’s in a strong position to continue his hot streak against Brady Singer of the Reds. Abreu hits for a ton of power at Fenway, posting a .267 ISO, a noticeable jump from his .213 mark on the road. Singer has allowed 30 extra-base hits this season, 19 of them to left-handed hitters. On the road against lefties, Singer has been tagged with a .349 wOBA and a 4.11 FIP. This matchup is projected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the night, which could provide ample opportunities for Abreu to record at least two total bases.
Texas Rangers team total over 4.5 runs +120 vs. Baltimore Orioles
I was a bit surprised to see plus money for the Rangers team total against Brandon Young and a struggling Orioles bullpen. We’ve only seen Young briefly, as he’s thrown a total of 12.2 innings at the major league level. It’s resulted in a 7.11 ERA with a 4.78 xERA and a 6.3 BB/9. At least in the early going, he’s putting a lot of traffic on the base paths and not generating the strikeout numbers we’ve seen in the minors. We also haven’t seen Young throw more than 4.2 innings, so it seems unlikely he would go deep into this game. If that’s the case, that means a good chunk of the Orioles’ bullpen. Over the past week, they’ve combined a 4.85 ERA with a 4.13 FIP and a 1.2 HR/9.
Shane Smith under 14.5 outs recorded +115 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Something tells me Smith isn’t going to make it through five innings against the Dodgers tonight. He’s gone under this mark in three of his last five starts, including each of his last two. In those outings—against the Diamondbacks and Cardinals—he allowed 11 runs on 10 hits with five walks over just 6.1 total innings. Now he’s up against one of the best offenses in baseball, and we’re supposed to believe he’ll get through five? I don’t think so. He just wrapped up a brutal month of June, during which he posted a 5.60 ERA, a 4.11 FIP, and a .347 wOBA. I’ll gladly take the plus money on him failing to complete five full innings tonight.
Good luck with these MLB picks tonight!
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