MLB trade season is closing in. Plans are forming as teams decide to sell, buy, or stand pat. Regarding their deadline status, the Seattle Mariners and Kansas City Royals are on a knife’s edge.
The Mariners, 44-40, hold on to the third wild card spot in the American League. A team known for taking a conservative approach, it’s unlikely that they buy in a big way. But if they begin to lose, that could make Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto think about a soft sell. That’s a big motivator for the clubhouse to play good baseball.
Kansas City would need a significant push to avoid being a seller. At 39-46, they’re rapidly sliding out of the playoff picture. Barring a late charge, players like tonight’s starter, Michael Lorenzen, and other vets will be on the block. Every loss pushes them closer to the brink of a lost season.
The Mariners are favorites (-144) over the Royals, with the over/under set at 8 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s matchup.
Royals at Mariners prediction, preview
Losers of eight of their last nine games, the Royals are on the fast track out of the playoffs. And Lorenzen is not the guy to stop the streak. According to Baseball Savant, he’s in the sixth percentile for pitching run value. His off-speed pitches have stopped missing bats and are inducing soft contact. At 33 years old, this kind of sharp decline is hard to bounce back from. This surging Mariners offense should feast.
Seattle starter Emerson Hancock hasn’t fared much better. In his first year as a full-time rotation piece, Hancock is also in the sixth percentile for pitching run value. He’s not missing bats and has few pitches he can truly rely on. With Seattle’s immense pitching depth and Bryce Miller due to return after the All-Star break, time is running out for the former first-round pick. Luckily for him, this Royals offense refuses to score. Tonight could be the night where he turns in a decent game.
I’m riding with the team boasting a superior offense in a battle of poor pitchers. Seattle’s bats should get active tonight against a struggling Lorenzen, while the Royals will struggle to make up ground.
Royals at Mariners pick, best bet
Over 8 Runs (-114)
Even if most of these runs come from the Mariners, I still like this play. Cal Raleigh won’t stop hitting balls to the moon. Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez and J.P. Crawford have all swung the bat well this year. This offense has shown off its explosive potential in the past few weeks. I’m expecting much of the same tonight.
The Royals have a less-than-inspired offense. But they can scrabble something together against Hancock, who can be a bit wild with his command and tends to serve up home runs. They may not stand much of a chance against Seattle’s offense, but they should be able to put up enough for us to hit our over.
