The Rays have been quietly impressive this season, just 1.5 games behind the Yankees for the AL East lead. Their +71 run differential ranks fifth across all MLB teams.
Meanwhile, the Athletics are still disappointing despite some standouts in the lineup. The team owns the third worst record and second worst run differential in the majors.
Tonight’s matchup begins a three-game set between the two clubs as Tampa Bay hosts. It’s the first time these teams are meeting this season.
The Rays are -172 favorites on the moneyline, and the game total is set at over/under eight runs on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Athletics are +140 underdogs.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Monday’s Rays vs. Athletics matchup.
Rays vs. Athletics prediction
Drew Rasmussen has been extremely consistent since joining the Rays in 2021. He’s pitched under a 3.00 ERA in each season, but he hasn’t always racked up a ton of innings.
This year he’s already pitched more innings than the last two seasons combined, so it’s a good start to his 2025 campaign. He gets the nod for Monday’s series opener.
Rasmussen will face off against Jacob Lopez, a former Rays pitcher. Lopez pitched just 22.2 innings for Tampa Bay over his first two seasons. Now in his third MLB season, he’s racked up 43 innings and holds a 3.56 ERA.
Although this season has been solid for Lopez, he’ll have to slow down a strong Rays offense. Tampa Bay is one of seven teams to score over 400 runs this season. It doesn’t help that the Athletics have allowed the second most total runs this season, only behind the Rockies.
Rasmussen will likely get plenty of run support, so even if he has an underwhelming outing, the Rays should still win.
Rays vs. Athletics pick, best bet
The Rays will win this matchup, but there isn’t any value with the team’s -172 moneyline. Even the -1.5 run line isn’t attractive at +119 considering the Athletics can score, too.
Instead, take the over at eight runs for the game’s best bet. The Rays have one of the top offenses, while the Athletics are in the middle of the pack. If the Rays jump on Lopez early, this can get out of hand cash the over ticket.