A little bit of a portioned-down MLB slate today here on the last Monday in June. Plenty of action, however, which means plenty of value bets on the board at DraftKings Sportsbook. I’ll be writing up games for this evening, including predictions and picks for Red Sox vs. Reds, Rangers vs. Orioles, and Diamondbacks vs. Giants. Having said that, here are my three favorite baseball bets today based on my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Blue Jays (+120) at New York Yankees
The Toronto Blue Jays are a live underdog at home against New York. Toronto thrives against left-handed pitching, posting a 115 wRC+ vs. lefties (well above their 102 wRC+ vs righties). Yankees starter Carlos Rodón’s underlying metrics hint at regression – despite a shiny ERA, his xERA (2.87) and xFIP (3.36) suggest he’s been overperforming, and his strikeout-minus-walk rate is a modest 21.2%. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays bring advantages in the field and bullpen, ranking as a top-five defensive team with a top-10 bullpen unit.
With ace Max Scherzer on the mound for Toronto and Rodón facing a tough matchup, the Blue Jays have the edge in key areas. Projection models even favor Toronto as a slight favorite (around -114), yet the Jays are priced at +120. In a game where Toronto’s contact-heavy lineup (fewest strikeouts vs LHP in the last month) can neutralize Rodón’s strength, backing the Blue Jays at +120 offers excellent value.
Pirates (-115) vs. Cardinals
The Pittsburgh Pirates look undervalued hosting St. Louis. Veteran lefty Andrew Heaney gives Pittsburgh a pitching edge over journeyman Erick Fedde – Heaney’s expected ERA (~4.75) is significantly lower than Fedde’s (5.24), and Heaney’s strikeout-minus-walk rate (9.4%) doubles Fedde’s (5.1%). The Cardinals’ lineup is notably weaker against southpaws, managing just a 92 wRC+ vs left-handed pitching (vs 108 wRC+ vs RHP), and they’ve been even worse over the past month (82 wRC+ vs LHP).
On the flip side, Pittsburgh’s bats are finally heating up—the Pirates offense put up a 129 wRC+ over the past week, scoring 30 runs in a three-game span. Pittsburgh’s bullpen and defense are also showing improvement, shoring up two early-season weaknesses. Given these trends, it’s no surprise analytics project the Pirates as favorites (-114), yet the market is still offering plus money. With a rejuvenated lineup and the lefty-on-lefty advantage, the Pirates at -115 are a strong value play at home.
Rangers vs. Orioles u8.5 total runs (-110)
This matchup in Texas shapes up as a low-scoring affair. The Rangers have been MLB’s premier under team in 2025, with a 65% hit rate to the Under (54-29-1) including a 30-12 Under record at home. One big reason is Globe Life Field’s environment – it ranks dead-last in run scoring this year, sporting the lowest Park Factor (79) and Home Run Factor (68) among all ballparks. Both lineups also struggle against left-handed pitching: Texas has a paltry 73 wRC+ vs lefties, and Baltimore is at 74 wRC+ vs lefties. With both teams sending out lefty starters (Trevor Rogers for Baltimore, Patrick Corbin for Texas), offense could be at a premium.
Additionally, each club’s bullpen has been lights-out over the past month, ready to slam the door in the late innings. An expert projection models only 7.9 total runs in this game, well below the 8.5-run line. All indicators—pitcher matchups, park factors, and recent trends—point to a tight, lower-scoring game, making Under 8.5 runs (-105) the smart value bet.
