Following the Rocket Classic, the PGA TOUR season continues this week with the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run (par 71, 7,289 yards, bentgrass greens) in Silvis, Illinois. Outside of 2020, when this event was canceled due to the pandemic, every John Deere Classic since 2000 has been played at TPC Deere Run. At this tournament last season, Davis Thompson won by four shots and shot a tournament-record -28, marking his first win on the PGA TOUR. There will be 156 golfers teeing it at the John Deere Classic this week and a top-65 and ties cut after the first two rounds.
TPC Deere Run is one of the easiest courses on the PGA TOUR, as five of the last six winners at this par 71 have shot -21 or better. TPC Deere Run is a short track that features wide fairways, thick rough, small greens, 76 bunkers and water in play on three holes. Any length of player can win at this venue and being accurate is far more important than being long, to avoid the penalizing rough. More importantly, being dialed with both your irons and putter is essential at TPC Deere Run. Of the last five winners at this track, three have finished the tournament top-18 in SG APP and three have finished the event top-five in SGP. Notably, 22% of approach shots at TPC Deere Run over the last five years have come from 125-150 yards out, so seeking out golfers who are efficient from this distance is smart. Scoring on the 11 par fours of this traditional par 71 is the most crucial at TPC Deere Run, specifically the 400-450-yard par fours. Five of the 11 at this course fall in this range and each of the last six victors at TPC Deere Run have finished the event top-five in efficiency on the 400-450-yard par fours of this par 71.
Below, I have featured four of my favorite DraftKings bargain plays for the John Deere Classic, which all cost less than $7.5K.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $700K Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
Kevin Roy ($7,400) – Roy has been awesome recently. The 35-year-old has advanced to the weekend in each of his last seven solo starts and in his most recent two, Roy has finished T18th at the RBC Canadian Open and T8th at the Rocket Classic last week. In that latter start, Roy gained a career-high 7.6 strokes on approach at Detroit Golf Club – which ranked third for the event – and he shot a career-low 10-under 62 in the first round.
Roy has gained strokes on approach at four events in a row and he ranks sixth in par four performance this season. Roy finished T31st in his John Deere Classic debut two years ago and he has the potential for a much higher finish this week. Roy currently sits at a career-high No.152 in the world golf rankings, which is 291 spots higher than his ranking heading into his first attempt at TPC Deere Run in 2023.
Sami Valmaki ($7,300) – Valmaki finished T19th at the Rocket Classic last week, while gaining strokes with both his irons and putter. The professional out of Finland has now carded six top-25 finishes and made 11 cuts in 15 solo starts this season. Valmaki ranks top-30 in both SG APP and SGP, and he thrived in his John Deere Classic debut last season, with a T12 finish, including a 10-under 61 in the first round, which is Valmaki’s lowest score to date on the PGA TOUR.
Evident by this career-low round, Valmaki has the tools to flourish at TPC Deere Run and he is a fantastic target at this low salary.
Cameron Champ ($7,200) – After losing his PGA TOUR card last season, Champ has spent most of this season competing on the Korn Ferry Tour. However, he has been invited to a few PGA TOUR events recently and the three-time PGA TOUR winner has seized the opportunity. After finishing T9th at the RBC Canadian Open – including an opening round 8-under 62 – Champ finished T19th at the Rocket Classic last week.
Champ has shot under par in seven of these past eight rounds, and he nearly gained strokes in every major category at both these tournaments. Champ has only made 2-of-5 cuts at TPC Deere Run, but he did finish T11th at this venue in 2021. With his game ascending right now, Champ brings this type of upside this week and he must be included in your play pool at this affordable price tag.
Jackson Suber ($7,000) – Suber has never teed it up at TPC Deere Run before, but the rookie is primed for a strong debut at the par 71 this week. After finishing T18th at the RBC Canadian Open, Suber kept his foot on the gas and finished T6th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week. Suber gained strokes across the board at Detroit Golf Club and he racked up 25 birdies, which was the second-most for the event.
Suber shooting low at the susceptible Detroit Golf Club is an encouraging sign for TPC Deere Run, as this par 71 is another easy course that yields low scoring. The 25-year-old ranks eighth in SG APP this season and Suber has great upside for a player this cheap.
