The Steelers and Dolphins surprised NFL fans with a blockbuster trade Monday. Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Dolphins are trading tight end Jonnu Smith, star cornerback Jalen Ramsey and a 2027 seventh-round pick to the Steelers in exchange for safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and a 2027 fifth-round pick.
Smith is coming off the first Pro-Bowl season of his career. With the Dolphins last season, the tight end finished with 88 catches for 884 yards and eight touchdowns. Fantasy-wise, Smith led all tight ends in FPTS per snap and he finished fourth at his position in FPTS per game at 13.6.
Smith being traded to the Steelers reunites him with Arthur Smith, who was Jonnu Smith’s head coach in Atlanta two years ago and his offensive coordinator with the Titans in 2019-20. Arthur Smith is currently the offensive coordinator for Pittsburgh and this reunion unfortunately isn’t great news for Jonnu Smith from a fantasy perspective.
Jonnu Smith handled a 19.4% target share with Miami last season, but this number is likely to dramatically decrease with the Steelers, as Arthur Smith is a run-first offensive-minded coach and under him with the Falcons two years ago, Jonnu Smith averaged only 7.6 FPTS per game. With Arthur Smith as the Steelers’ offensive coordinator last season, Pittsburgh ranked 28th in pass play percentage. The Steelers now have Aaron Rodgers under center, so the team is likely to throw the ball more this season, but it likely won’t be a huge change given Rodgers is 41 years old and Arthur Smith’s tendencies as a coordinator.
To make matters worse, as a Steeler, Jonnu Smith now has to compete with DK Metcalf and Pat Freiermuth for targets. Freiermuth has been Pittsburgh’s starting tight end since he was drafted four years ago and he and Smith should split the snaps, hurting both players’ fantasy stock significantly.
Currently, Smith is ranked as the ninth-highest tight end on DraftKings for the site’s best ball format and his ADP is at 107.6. At this current projection, Smith isn’t an appealing target in the wake of this trade to the Steelers and waiting later in drafts to take a chance on the veteran is smart.
While season player props for Smith have yet to be posted on DraftKings Sportsbook following this trade, Rodgers’ current passing touchdown line is set at 23.5. The former MVP threw for 28 touchdowns with the Jets last season, but New York was a totally different type of offense, as the Jets ranked fourth in pass play percentage, compared to the Steelers, who ranked 28th. While Smith is a new and appealing red-zone target for Rodgers, as discussed above, the Steelers are more than likely to remain a run-heavy offense this season with Arthur Smith calling the plays. Rodgers is likely in store for a quiet season by his standards and backing him for under 23.5 passing touchdowns at -125 on DraftKings Sportsbook is the right move, despite Jonnu Smith’s arrival.
