The Lynx are hosting the Sun on Sunday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Minnesota is favored by 20 points and this game carries a total of 154.5 points.
Below, I break down this matchup between the Lynx and the Sun and give a pick for the game.
Lynx vs. Sun preview, prediction
The Lynx and Sun have had polar opposite seasons. Minnesota has been the best team in the WNBA, with a 13-2 record and ranking first in net rating, while Connecticut has easily been the worst team in the association, with a 2-14 record and ranking dead last in net rating by a mile.
The Sun have been even worse than usual as of late, with Marina Mabrey (leg), Connecticut’s second-leading scorer this season, out for the last three games. During this stretch, the Sun are 0-3 and the team’s margin of defeat has been a huge 22.0 PPG with a -28.0 net rating. To put in perspective how poor this net rating is, ranking second-to-last when we compare every team’s last three games is the Liberty at -9.1.
Mabrey was available for the Sun’s lone meeting with the Lynx earlier this season and the guard led the way for Connecticut with 22 points in the 76-70 loss for the Sun. Unfortunately, Mabrey will be sidelined for Sunday’s matchup vs. the Lynx in Minnesota, who are a league-best 7-0 at home this season.
Minnesota has been led by Napheesa Collier, who is having the best season of her career. The four-time All-Star is averaging a career-high 24.5 PPG to go along with 8.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.5 blocks per game. Currently, Collier is the heavy favorite to win the MVP award this season, at -270 on DraftKings Sportsbook. With Collier at the helm, the Lynx rank first in defensive rating and third in offensive rating. Entering Sunday’s matchup with the Sun, Minnesota has won four of its last five games.
Lynx vs. Sun pick, best bet
As noted above, the Lynx are 7-0 at home this season and each of the team’s last four wins at home have come by at least 14 points. On the other side of this matchup, the Sun are a league-worst 1-8 on the road this season.
Especially with Mabrey out, the Sun are simply no match for the Lynx and Minnesota should cruise to an easy win when these two teams go head-to-head Sunday. While backing the Lynx at -20 is totally viable, backing this game to go under its 154.5-point total is a better wager. Connecticut is averaging only 67.7 PPG with Mabrey inactive this season and the Sun should struggle mightily on the offensive end when facing this league-best Minnesota defense on the road Sunday.
When it comes to O/U bets for this game, 60% of the handle is backing under 154.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook, and tailing the sharp money here is wise.
