International Fight Week is here, and UFC 317 is headlined by Ilia Topuria vs. No. 2 Charles Oliveira for the UFC Vacant Lightweight Championship. Flyweight king Alexandre Pantoja puts his title on the line against No. 4 Kai Kara-France in the co-main event.
The Prelims start at 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with the Main Card beginning at 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV. Here are my three best bets for UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira.
Ilia Topuria To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (-175)
Ilia Topuria is -425 to beat Charles Oliveira for the UFC Lightweight Championship on DraftKings Sportsbook. But the better play is to get Topuria to win this fight via KO/TKO/DQ since he has won two straight fights by knockout and five of seven.
Even though Topuria is the fighter in this matchup, moving up a weight division, his power should translate well to 155 pounds. Although Topuria has eight career finishes by submission, six of his previous nine wins have been by knockout.
Although Oliveira is taller (5’10” vs. 5’10”) and has a larger standing reach (74″ vs. 69″), Topuria is the better striker. He averages 1.29 more significant strikes per minute and has an unbelievable 64 percent defensive rate. Topuria does a great job of making his opponents feel his power while taking limited damage.
Oliveira is a former lightweight champion, but it feels like another all-time moment for Topuria is incoming. Topuria fights with confidence and patience and has an elite fight IQ in the Octagon. On the ground, Topuria possesses a 92 percent takedown defense, which is bad news for “Do Bronx”. If this is a primary striking matchup, it favors Topuria. Topuria does have submission ability but has been hunting knockouts recently, and it doesn’t seem to be stopping anytime soon.
Kai Kara-France Moneyline (+195)
Eugene Bareman’s latest protégé to challenge for a UFC title is the pride of Auckland, New Zealand, Kai “Don’t Blink” Kara-France. Bareman has built City Kickboxing into a powerhouse while guiding fighters to championships such as Israel Adesanya and Alexander Volkanovski.
Kara-France has hit speed bumps along the way, but seems destined to be the next fighter from CKB to realize his dream: UFC gold. After knocking out Steve Erceg in the first round at UFC 305, it was evident that KKF is worthy of a shot at Pantoja’s throne.
Three of Kara-France’s previous four victories have come by knockout, as he might be the most powerful fighter at 125 pounds. When Kara-France lands a big shot, you question if he is a flyweight. He possesses true one-punch knockout power, which is extremely rare in the flyweight division.
Pantjoa has won four straight title fights and has had an elite reign, but he hasn’t faced a striker on the level of Kara-France yet. Brandon Moreno has beaten Kara-France, but doesn’t have as much power. The reality is, Pantoja’s last two challengers have been underwhelming, with two undeserving fighters. But Kara-France is battle-tested, having faced two former champions in the past. Kara-France has an elite takedown defense (88%), and if Pantoja can’t get him to the ground often, it will heavily favor the challenger.
Renato Moicano to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+180)
Although Moicano and Dariush are the same age (36), they seem to be at very different points in their careers. Moicano is coming off a loss to Islam Makhachev at UFC 311, but he took that fight on two days’ notice. Before that bout, Moicano won four straight fights, with three finishes.
Moicano is the favorite in this bout at -118 on DraftKings Sportsbook. But the better play to me is to get Moicano by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission. That is because Moicano is after one thing when he steps in the Octagon: money, and to get the most, he knows he needs a finish.
Moicano has many advantages in this matchup, including being the better striker on the feet with more power. His takedown attempts are also more accurate (44% vs. 34%). Dariush is talented, especially on the ground, but with both fighters having a 70-plus percent takedown defensive rate, it could force most of the bout to take place on the feet. If that is the case, Moicano will wear Dariush down throughout three rounds, until he inevitably finishes him.
