After 20 teams are in action in the main afternoon window on Saturday afternoon, three games are on the schedule under the lights. Taking a look at the six starting pitchers taking the hill in the night matchups, let’s find some strong starting pitcher prop bets to consider. After browsing the available options, my top props for today include selections from Jesus Luzardo, Lance McCullers Jr. and Michael Soroka.
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Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jesus Luzardo over 6.5 strikeouts (+110)
Luzardo has been a little inconsistent lately, but he looked sharp his last time out with seven strikeouts against the Mets. He has been very good overall in his first year with the Phillies, going 7-3 in 16 starts with a 4.08 ERA but an even better 2.78 FIP. His BABIP against is an inflated .361, so with some better batted-ball fortune, his numbers could be even better.
He has been piling up strikeouts with a 27.0% K% and a 10.36 K/9. He has gone over this strikeout line in four of his last seven contests, averaging 6.7 strikeouts per start over that span.
The Braves are a slightly above-average strikeout matchup overall this season with a 22.4% K% that jumps to 23.7% against lefties like Luzardo. Luzardo’s strikeout rate is actually higher on the road than at home, and he had six strikeouts in his earlier matchup this season against the Braves. I think he’ll get at least one more punchout than that in a great pitching matchup against Spencer Schwellenbach on Saturday night.
Getting this play at plus-money makes it one of my favorite starting pitcher props of the night.
Lance McCullers Jr. under 14.5 outs recorded (+115)
The Astros are hosting the Cubs on Saturday night after welcoming back Kyle Tucker by beating his new team 7-4 on Friday night. On Saturday, the ‘Stros will give the ball to Lance McCullers Jr., who will be coming off the injured list. He has been out since mid-June due to a right foot sprain.
He went at least five innings in each of his last three starts before his injury, but he did not have a rehab stint, so he will likely be on a pitch limit. The Astros have only needed a total of 11 innings from their bullpen in the four games in their homestand, so they should be well-rested and ready to carry most of the load if McCullers has to exit early. The Astros are also sure to be careful with McCullers based on his injury history.
The matchup against the Cubs is no picnic either, so it’s not likely that McCullers will just cruise through five innings. Chicago has the fifth-best batting average in the majors against righties with a .337 wOBA in that split, which will be in play against McCullers.
The Cubs could get to him early, but even if they don’t, McCullers probably won’t be stretched out enough to deal with the traffic they always seem to generate. Even if he pitches well, he could be done after four innings since he’s just ramping back up after his IL stint.
Michael Soroka over 2.5 earned runs allowed (+125)
Soroka has a great story and is easy to cheer for, but I’m picking against him in the last of my starting pitcher prop bets for Saturday night. Even when he has been effective lately, he has typically gone over this run line.
He has given up at least three earned runs in six of his last seven starts and in eight of his 10 starts overall. He had a season-high 10 strikeouts against the Dodgers in his last outing but still gave up three runs in 5 1/3 innings.
Unlike the Astros, the Nationals have had to use their bullpen a lot the last few games, so they’ll probably have to let Soroka eat as many innings as he can. He has done a great job of that this year, but that’s part of the reason he has gone over this run line so often.
The Angels’ offensive struggles are why this prop is at plus-money on Saturday night. They have been better lately, though, with 4.8 runs per game over the last two weeks with a .231 batting average and .332 wOBA. That wOBA and their team wRC+ rank in the top-10 over that timeframe, and as a result, I think they’ll be able to get at least three runs off of Soroka on Saturday night.
