Saturday is another jam-packed day of baseball with 10 games starting around 4:00 p.m. ET and three more under the evening lights. With warm weather and some nice matchups, it should be a good day for long balls, so let’s find some home run props that make sense this Saturday. Based on matchup, environment and a player’s current form, my top three home run props on the board for Saturday are Jonathan Aranda, Agustin Ramirez and Brady House.
Just a quick reminder before we step up to the plate and swing for the fences — all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in less than half of their games, home run props are never “safe” picks — even if every single factor seems to indicate a long ball is coming.
The upside to home run props is that the long odds mean big returns when they hit. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your hitters goes yard — get those QTs and RTs ready on X! Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy but they shouldn’t be exclusively counted on. You can also combine these home run props with other picks into SGPs or parlay plays, and I also like to play them at small money in round robins to boost their upside even higher if multiple picks hit it deep on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Friday.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jonathan Aranda to record 1+ home runs (+320)
The Orioles and Rays play in the most homer-friendly ballpark in the afternoon slate and both pitchers have been prone to giving up dingers. On Friday, the two teams combined for 30 runs and seven home runs as the O’s emerged with the win, 22-8. Both sides have good home run props on Saturday too, since both Zach Eflin and Zack Littell have been prone to giving up the long ball.
Eflin has the highest HR/9 on the slate, giving up 15 homers in 61 innings. Left-handed hitters have hit 13 of the 15 homers he has allowed, and since Aranda is swinging a hot stick, I think he brings good value Saturday in my home run props.
He connected on his ninth long ball of the season as part of Friday’s slugfest and is 22-for-56 (.393) over his last 14 games with a .440 wOBA, a 66.7% hard-hit rate and a pair of homers.
Aranda is 2-for-5 with a double in his career against Eflin and I think he’ll be able to get good contact with a good shot at another homer. I had Brandon Lowe in my props yesterday and he delivered, so I’m going back to the Rays but with a different lefty on Saturday.
Agustin Ramirez to record 1+ home runs (+450)
Ramirez has brought some serious thunder to the Marlins’ order and has 12 homers in his first 55 games in the majors. Five of those homers have been in his last 19 games while he has hit .260
Over those 19 games, Ramirez has a 50% hard-hit rate and 15% barrel rate. He has an impressive average exit velocity of 94.2 miles per hour during that stretch and will look to continue mashing as part of Miami’s improving offense.
On Saturday at Chase Field, he’ll face Brandon Pfaadt, who has given up nine homers in his last eight starts while posting an 8.55 ERA, 6.47 FIP and a 1.63 WHIP. He has allowed a 52.1% hard-hit rate and 17.4% barrel rate over those games, so Ramirez and the Fish should be able to make good contact in a homer-friendly spot on Saturday afternoon.
Brady House to record 1+ home runs (+750)
I’m really taking a long shot for the last of my home run props, but I think Brady House is overdue to hit his first homer in the majors and is in a good spot to get the job done on Saturday night.
House has looked pretty solid since joining the Nats 11 days ago, hitting .256 with two doubles and two surprising stolen bases. He came up big on Friday with an RBI double in the seventh inning that scored the go-ahead run in a wild 15-9 win in Anaheim.
That was one of two hard-hit batted-ball events for House on Friday, and he has a 36.4% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 88.4 miles per hour. Over his last four games, though, his average exit velocity has jumped to 90.4 miles per hour.
House hasn’t homered yet in the majors but he hit 13 long balls at Triple-A and had a 46.0% hard-hit rate. He’s a big right-handed hitter with plenty of pop, and the 22-year-old will look to be a big part of the team’s core going forward.
On Saturday, I like House’s matchup against Kyle Hendricks of the Angels, who pitches to a ton of contact. In his 15 starts, he has given up 14 homers, and 10 of those have been hit by right-handed hitters. Righties have hit .316 with a .392 wOBA against him so it’s a good spot for House to get his first homer. He’s a long shot, but I love him at these odds.
