For the seventh time this season, the Phillies and Braves are set to face off. Philadelphia comes into this contest in a slump, having scored one total run over three games against the Astros. On the flip side, Atlanta has won nine of its last 15 contests. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s battle between the Phillies and Braves.
The Braves are heavy favorites (-181) over the rival Phillies, with the over/under set at 9.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s matchup.
Phillies at Braves prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, this week has been a nightmare for the Phillies. Somehow, they managed to lose three times despite holding Houston to two runs or less in each game. While the series was disappointing, it’s also fair to call it an aberration. Philadelphia averaged seven runs per game last weekend against an elite Mets pitching staff. On the season, the Phillies are averaging the 11th-most runs per game in baseball (4.57).
While the last three games were tough on Philly, the last three months have been brutal for the Braves. Entering 2025 with World Series hype, Atlanta has stumbled out to a 37-43 record. Granted, injuries to stars such as Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider haven’t helped. Still, it’s impossible to deny that this group has underperformed. Regardless, there are several dangerous hitters in this lineup. Acuna Jr. is slashing .369/.485/.658 since his season debut on May 23rd. Fellow sluggers Matt Olson (134 wRC+) and Marcell Ozuna (122 wRC+) have also stepped up. However, the Braves remain maddeningly inconsistent at the plate.
The biggest plus for Atlanta recently has been its pitching. Since May 20th, the Braves have surrendered 127 runs, eighth-fewest in baseball. Bryce Elder has been one of the lone letdowns on the mound, pitching to a mediocre 4.77 ERA. In his most recent outing, at pitcher-friendly Loan Depot Park, the 26-year-old surrendered five runs to the Marlins. Prior to that, he allowed four runs over 3.1 innings at home against the Rockies. Philadelphia’s lineup represents a significant step up in difficulty for the right-hander.
If the Phillies are going to pull off a road win, they’ll need Mick Abel at his best. The rookie has delivered solid numbers through his first 23.1 innings of work (3.47 ERA, 1.16 WHIP). However, he was hit hard last Saturday against the Mets (3.1 IP, 4 ER). In theory, this is a difficult spot for any 23-year-old. With that being said, Atlanta’s hitters haven’t played up to their potential. This season, the Braves have posted the league’s sixth-lowest slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers (.385).
Phillies at Braves pick, best bet
Best Bet: Phillies ML (+148)
As bad as they’ve looked this week, I’m willing to bet the Phillies turn things around tonight. After meeting Astros ace Hunter Brown on Thursday, Philadelphia’s hitters will be itching to face Elder. Abel, while unproven, has the kind of stuff that can keep this Braves offense in check. At plus money, expect a bounce-back win for the visitors on Friday.
