All 30 MLB teams are on the schedule for Friday night, with some very exciting weekend series getting underway. With, thus, 30 starting pitchers on the board, there are plenty of great starting pitcher prop bets to consider. After browsing the available options, my top props for today include selections from Ryan Pepiot, Jose Quintana and Merrill Kelly.
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Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Ryan Pepiot over 6.5 strikeouts (+125)
Pepiot and the Rays are in Baltimore for an AL East matchup, in a stadium that looks like it will avoid the potential rain issues in the Midwest. Pepiot is 5-6 in his 16 starts with a solid 3.04 ERA along with a 1.10 WHIP and 4.06 FIP. For this prop, though, we’re not focused on run prevention where he coudl be due some regression, instead we’re looking at strikeouts.
He has a 24.2% K% on the season, averaging 8.7 K/9. He has gone over this prop line in each of his last four starts.
He faced the Orioles just two starts ago, and he had 11 strikeouts in eight innings. He’ll look to pick up where he left off in that outing, and the O’s have been a good strikeout matchup lately, with a 23.6% stirkeout rate over the last 30 days that ranks ninth highest in the majors.
Pepiot’s 37.2% K% this month is probably unsustainable, but he should be able to get to at least seven Ks in this matchup. Getting him at plus money in a favorable matchup is a great place to start Friday’s starting pitcher prop bets.
Jose Quintana to record a win (+155)
The Brewers are my top MLB DFS stack of the day against Kyle Freeland coming off the injured list, and I think they will give Quintana plenty of run support. Run support and a strong bullpen are two factors that play into a “to record a win” prop that typically make them longer odds.
In this prop, I like Quintana as a value play to overcome the odds and deliver a victory. In his 10 starts for the Brew Crew this season he has five wins with an impressive 2.98 ERA and 4.62 FIP. Like Pepiot, his low ERA isn’t totally backed up, but for this prop we just need him to keep Colorado quiet for five innings while letting his team get him enough runs to put him in a place to win.
Quintana won his last start and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of his 10 apperances this season. Facing the Rockies when they are away from Coors Field is always a good spot to look for starting pitcher props, since they are just 10-31 on the road and have hit .207 as a team on the road with a .272 wOBA and a 70 wRC+ as a team, meaning they produce runs 30% below league average.
It should be a good spot for Quintana to get win number six, especially after he looked so sharp with six shutout innings against the Twins.
Merrill Kelly over 5.5 strikeouts (-120)
In the final of my starting pitcher prop bets for this Friday, I’m picking against the Fish in the desert. The Marlins have done a good job at strikeout suppression lately, but I think Kelly will be able to get at least six strikeouts agianst them in the final game of the night.
Kelly has 93 strikeouts in 93 innings this season and has been more effective at home than on the road. He has gone over this line in nine straight starts dating back to the beginning of May. Even starts where he gave up lots of runs, he still ended up with at least six strikeouts.
In his last start at Coors Field, Kelly fanned seven, and he had exactly that many strikeouts in his last two home starts against the Mariners and Padres as well.
Kelly doesn’t have a reputation as a high-volume strikeout guy, but he’s been able to get over this line often enough that I like this play on Friday night at home, despite the Marlins’ ability to limit their strikeouts over the last few weeks.
