TGIFAWCBOB.
You’re not familiar with that acronym? It very plainly stands for “Thank God It’s Friday And We Can Bet On Baseball.” Duh. There are literally thousands of wagers waiting to be made tonight on the DraftKings Sportsbook with a full 15-game MLB slate. Let’s dive in and break down my favorite picks.
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
Under 8.5 (-106)
There’s a lot to like about the under with this one. Almost so much that it’s making me reconsider this bet. Let’s start with these two lineups, neither of which has been operating at a particularly high level in recent weeks. The Jays sport just a .123 ISO and a 98 wRC+ over the last 14 days, while the Red Sox have mustered an MLB-worst 53 wRC+ since the Monday after the team dealt slugger Rafael Devers to the Giants. Woof.
We also need to talk about Toronto home/road splits, because they are a sight to behold. It’s truly almost Rockies-esque. The Jays possess a .102 ISO on the road in 2025 — the lowest mark in MLB. At home, Toronto owns a 125 wRC+, which happens to be second in the league to only the Dodgers. With tonight’s tilt at Fenway, I wouldn’t be expecting too much from the Jays’ bats.
The recent track record of Brayan Bello helps in that regard, too. Bello didn’t get off to the best start this season — particularly from an advanced statistical perspective — but the RHP has shored things up across his last six outings. In that span, Bello has registered a sterling 2.65 ERA over 34.0 innings of work. Not to be outdone, Jose Berrios, who will toe the rubber for Toronto on Friday, has held his opponents to one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts. That run includes his start this past weekend against the White Sox, where he tossed 7.2 scoreless frames.
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks
Under 8.5 (-114)
I don’t know if I can even call this a “sneaky good” pitching matchup, as I think it’s pretty well known at this point what Merrill Kelly and Eury Perez can bring to the table. The latter’s surface numbers haven’t been amazing since returning from a long-term IL stint, but there’s nothing to worry about too much with Perez, aside from maybe a 13.0% walk rate. Across three starts and 11.2 innings, the 22-year-old has managed a 2.99 FIP and his average fastball velocity is sitting at 98.1 mph. He’s a phenom. Plus, he appears to be a fully built-up phenom after tossing 89 pitches in his previous outing.
Kelly is diametrically opposed to Perez in almost every single way, yet the veteran RHP still consistently gets the job done. Kelly’s overall season stats speak for themselves, but if you just take the 36-year-old’s last 14 starts, Kelly has pitched to a 2.68 ERA and 2.69 FIP over an 84-inning sample. That’s damn good. Kelly also possesses a 27.6% strikeout rate and just a 5.5% walk rate in this span, so it’s not like this is smoke and mirrors. He’s simply been one of the NL’s best arms for the better part of three months.
Expect both of these pitchers to thrive on Friday night, especially as the Diamondbacks’ once fear-inducing lineup continues to adjust to life without All-Star Corbin Carroll (wrist) and backstop Gabriel Moreno (finger).
