Rounding out a trio of late-slate action on the Friday WNBA schedule, the Seattle Storm will host the Connecticut Sun. This will be the first matchup between these two teams this season, and they enter with very different outlooks on the year.
The Storm hold a 9-6 record which puts them in fifth place in the WNBA. They have won six of their last eight but are looking to bounce back from a 94-86 loss to the Fever in their previous game. The Sun sit in last place in the WNBA with a 2-13 overall record and have lost seven consecutive games entering tonight. Their two wins came against the Indiana Fever and Atlanta Dream.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s game, the Storm enter as 19.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. Connecticut holds +1300 odds of pulling off the outright upset while the game total sits at 156.5.
Sun at Storm preview
The Seattle Storm are still attempting to make the push into the WNBA’s true contenders and have shown some promising signs this season. They rank fifth in the league in scoring with 83.3 points per game and efficiency has been a major strength, leading the league in both field goal (46.8%) and three-point percentage (37.0%). Defensively, they are holding opponents to 79.5 points per game, the sixth-best rate. Opponents are shooting just 42.8% from the floor and 33.6% from beyond the three-point line, which rank eighth and ninth in the WNBA.
Skylar Diggins headlines the production for Seattle, averaging 18.7 points and 6.7 assists per game. Nneka Ogwumike provides a nice complement in the frontcourt and adds 17.7 points and 8.2 rebounds per contest. Gabby Williams also pitches in 14.0 points, 4.7 assists, and 4.5 rebounds while connecting on 38.9% of her three-point attempts. Williams leads the team in three-point volume, but Erica Wheeler also adds 11.7 points per game and is knocking down 43.4% of her perimeter looks.
There is not as much to write home about with the Connecticut Sun. Across their recent seven-game losing streak, they are averaging just 69.1 points and have allowed 83 or more points in five straight outings. Connecticut has also gone three straight games without cracking 60 points. They rank dead last in both offensive efficiency and score just 92.6 points per 100 possessions while allowing 114.2 to opponents. The Sun are shooting just 28.5% from beyond the three-point arc, the second-worst rate in the league, and also rank dead last in rebounding.
To make matters worse, Marina Mabrey will miss tonight’s game and is expected to miss 2-4 weeks with a knee issue. They have lost the two games without her to this point by a combined 50 points to this point. She is one of Connecticut’s leading producers at 15.2 points per game while pitching in 5.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists. Tina Charles is the only other member of the roster to be averaging double-figures at 16.2 points and 5.2 rebounds per game. Olivia Nelson-Ododa is the team’s next leading scorer at 8.6 points per game while pacing the team in rebounding with 6.4 boards per night. It will take another member of the Sun to step up in a major way for this game to even remain competitive.
Sun at Storm prediction, pick
Expect the Storm to carry a bit of a chip on their shoulder following their previous loss to the Fever, which means bad news for the Sun. Seattle shot an uncharacteristic 8-for-28 (28.6%) from beyond the three-point arc in the previous game and were outrebounded 38-21 in the loss, including conceding 15 offensive rebounds.
Expect a bounce-back shooting night and for the shots to go in closer to their league-leading rate. In addition, Connecticut does not have the personnel to attack the glass in the same way. The Sun score at the worst rate in the WNBA and Seattle should have no trouble pushing the total to a level their opponent cannot match. The Storm have three wins of 20 or more points this season, so I lean toward them covering at -19.5.
But with the large spread in mind, I am backing the first-half spread and the Storm to cover the -11 number. This is a game that could get out of control early. I expect a commanding effort from the Storm in the opening few minutes of the game with the intent of putting things away. This has the makings of an old-school load-management game in which the starters are not required in the later stages. Expect a strong start by the Storm and for Seattle to hold at least a 12-point lead heading into halftime.
