As a part of the trio of late-game action on the WNBA slate, the Golden State Valkyries host the Chicago Sky. This will be the first matchup between these two teams with Golden State playing its inaugural season.
It has been a tough start to the season for the Sky, who enter with a 4-10 record and have lost six of their last eight games. The Valkyries are 7-7 on the season but have been trending in the right direction of late. After an early four-game losing streak, they have won five of their last seven matchups and will be looking to bounce back from a respectable 81-78 loss to the Liberty in their previous game.
The Valkyries enter as an 8.5-point favorite with -395 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sky hold +310 odds of pulling off the upset with the game total set at 157.5.
Sky vs. Valkyries preview
Scoring has been a huge problem for this Sky team this season as they rank 12th in the league at 78.0 points per game. They shoot 42.3% from the floor and 30.4% from beyond the three-point arc, which ranks eighth and 11th in the WNBA. There are also some defensive concerns as Chicago ranks last in points allowed at 88.2 per game. Opponents are shooting 46.3% from the floor and 39.9% from beyond the three-point arc, which are also the worst marks in the league.
Ariel Atkins leads the team in scoring with 13.9 points per game and is the team’s best three-point shooter at 36.4%. Kamilla Cardoso has taken a step forward in her second season, averaging 12.7 points and 6.6 rebounds, but has stepped away from the team to represent Brazil in the FIBA Americup. Angel Reese is averaging 11.3 points, 11.9 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game while showing some intriguing growth as a playmaker and also leading the team with 1.9 steals per game.
It has been a promising last few games for the Golden State Valkyries in their first season but they are still recovering statistically from their slow start. Golden State ranks 10th in the league in scoring at 79.0 points per game. They rank second in three-point attempts per game but are connecting at just a 28.1% rate, which ranks last in the league. The Valkyries are also shooting just 39.7% from the floor overall, which ranks 12th. Defensively, opponents are averaging 78.6 points per game against them, which ranks fifth in the WNBA.
Kayla Thornton headlines the scoring effort with 14.9 points and 7.1 rebounds per game on the season. Golden State has six players who average over 10 points per game as they operate with mostly a team-oriented approach. Veronica Burton leads the team with 5.3 assists per game while also adding 10.8 points and 3.9 rebounds per night.
Sky vs. Valkyries prediction, pick
The Chicago Sky compete hard, but some legitimate roster limitations have been magnified by injuries and the FIBA Americup. They are coming off a convincing 97-86 victory over the Los Angeles Sparks which tied a season-high in scoring. Unfortunately, they will now be without Kamilla Cordoso and the 27 points she provided in the previous victory.
The Valkries still have their flaws, but they are deeper, play more disciplined ball, and will have the home crowd behind them tonight. Golden State forces turnovers at a high rate, which is a concern against a Sky team that can be sloppy with the ball. Chicago allows a league-worst 20.3 points off turnovers to opponents, nearly two points higher than any other team in the league.
Expect this to be a key part of the matchup, with the game capable of getting away from the Sky entirely through this turnover battle. Chicago has had some encouraging signs of late, but they are facing a hotter team with fewer flaws. Golden State has covered the spread in each of their last three games and is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played. Expect this game to remain competitive in the early stages before Golden State can score at a level Chicago cannot match.
From a game total perspective, my lean is toward the under of 157.5, but the 97-point eruption by the Sky in the previous game has me staying away for now.
Best Bet: Valkyries -8.5
While I am backing the Valkyries on the spread, I do think there is good value on the player prop market for Angel Reese. You can read my full breakdown and picks for tonight’s WNBA slate here, but I am backing Reese to record 4+ assists in tonight’s matchup.
Primarily known for her impact in rebounding the basketball, Angel Reese has shown some intriguing playmaking flashes in recent games, and there is value to be capitalized on. On the season overall, the LSU product is averaging 11.3 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game. She has tallied 4+ assists in four of her past five games, including an 11-assist triple-double against the Connecticut Sun. Reese is averaging 5.6 assists per game across her past five matchups played. She is just 11 assists shy of last year’s total, which she logged in 34 games as a rookie.
This has been a result of both Reese growing as a playmaker and the Sky playing through her more frequently. Since Courtney Vandersloot suffered a torn ACL, Reese is logging a team-high 8.2 assists per 100 possessions. Before Vandersloot’s injury, Reese was averaging just 4.4 assists per 100 possessions.
The Sky will face the Golden State Valkyries tonight. This is a friendly matchup for playmaking from Reese’s perspective. While Golden State ranks sixth in opponent assists allowed, they have given up the fourth-most to opposing forwards. Look for Reese to continue relying on her growing playmaking chops and for Chicago to continue making it a focus to have cutters around her for the 6-foot-3 forward to capitalize on. Count on Reese recording 4+ assists for the fifth time in the past six games, and this also could be a spot worth laddering with +185 odds of tallying 5+ assists and +390 odds of 6+ assists on DraftKings Sportsbook.
