You would be hard-pressed to find a hotter team in baseball at the moment than the Rays. Tampa comes into this afternoon’s tilt with the Royals looking to lock up a sweep and get 11 games above .500. That’s pretty impressive stuff for a team that was well below the .500 mark at points back in April.
It’s the opposite situation for Kansas City, as the club has fallen upon hard times. Not only have the Royals dropped each of their past four contests, but they’ve now lost 12 of their last 17 games overall. The team simply can not hit. Bobby Witt Jr. is having an underwhelming campaign by how own lofty standards and Kansas City has hit an AL-low 56 home runs in 2025. Contrary to some old school beliefs, the long ball is, in fact, important.
Let’s preview this afternoon matinee with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rays vs. Royals prediction, preview
It’s been one step forward and two steps back for Shane Baz all season long. While it is encouraging that the former first-round pick has been healthy enough to already set a new career-high in innings pitched (82.2), Baz’s overall numbers are pretty mundane. Across 15 starts, the right-hander owns a 4.79 ERA and a 4.83 FIP, despite an electric fastball and a near-elite 49.8% ground ball rate. His main issue has been the home runs, as he’s surrendered 1.52 per nine with a 22nd percentile opponent barrel rate (10.2%). However, as mentioned above, this is a matchup where Baz’s opposition might not be equipped to exploit that weakness, as the Royals rank 29th in the league in ISO (.122). Baz’s long balls woes have also been a little more pronounced at George M. Steinbrenner Field.
Speaking of giving up home runs, let’s discuss Michael Lorenzen. The veteran RHP has conceded 1.53 opponent long balls per nine so far in 2025, which is a massive reason why Lorenzen sports ugly marks in ERA (4.81) and FIP (4.70). Things have been especially bleak for the 33-year-old in the last month, as Lorenzen has pitched to a ghastly 7.20 ERA across his past five starts. It’s a span where he’s allowed five home runs in only 25.0 innings of work. It’s also a stretch where Lorenzen has registered a 10.5% walk rate and a 1.60 WHIP, so it’s not like the bases are often empty when these balls are leaving the park.
Unlike the Royals, the Rays do have the capacity to take advantage of Lorenzen’s red flags. In fact, in the month of June, Tampa Bay leads all of baseball in batting average (.280), wOBA (.345) and wRC+ (127). Everyone’s hitting. Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, Brandon Lowe, Junior Caminero… The whole lineup is bumping. That could make it another long day for Kansas City fans.
Rays vs. Royals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Rays ML (-126)
The hottest lineup in June will put up some crooked numbers against the struggling Lorenzen.
