Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. No matter what you call them, you love seeing them happen in a baseball game. You probably love betting on them, too.
With that in mind, here are my top three home run prop picks for Thursday’s MLB slate on DraftKings Sportsbook, which features a heavy dose of afternoon action.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Brandon Lowe 1+ Home Run (+450)
Lowe has never again reached the heights of his 2021 campaign, a magical season where he blasted 39 home runs for the Rays. However, he’s currently on pace to challenge the 30 home run plateau for just the second time in his career. Lowe comes into Thursday’s tilt with the Royals having hit 15 long balls so far in 2025, with four coming in the month of June. For the season as a whole, Lowe possesses 86th percentile average exit velocity (92.0) and an 85th percentile expected slugging rate (.514). He’s also got a .221 ISO when getting to face RHPs like Michael Lorenzen. It’s worth mentioning that he 33-year-old right-hander has been significantly better this season when getting to pitch at the spacious Kauffman Stadium, but overall, Lorenzen’s surrendering 1.53 opponent home runs per nine. That’s a rough look.
Will Smith 1+ Home Run (+230)
Few players in baseball have been as effective against left-handed pitching this season as Smith. To wit, the backstop leads all Dodgers in expected wOBA within the split, posting a jaw-dropping .463 figure. In more layman’s terms, Smith is slashing .383/.508/.681 with a .298 ISO in his 59 plate appearances versus southpaws in 2025. So, Smith must have incredible career numbers against division-rival Austin Gomber, right? …Right?! He’s actually hitless in 12 at-bats. You seriously can not predict baseball, Suzyn. However, I’m willing to look past the head-to-head stats. Smith is crushing lefties and Gomber just conceded three opponent long balls and nine earned runs in his first start at Coors Field this season. I’m expecting more of the same this afternoon.
Juan Soto 1+ Home Run (+295)
These seem like pretty decent odds for a man who has launched five home runs in his last five games. To be perfectly blunt, Soto is just on fire at the moment. Dating back to the final day of May, Soto is slashing .325/.486/.775 with a .450 ISO and a 241 wRC+. That’s what happens when 11 of your 26 hits in an 80 at-bat span are leaving the park. Basically, Soto’s real-life numbers finally match his expected ones, as the All-Star enters this evening’s lone scheduled contest with 100th percentile marks in both expected wOBA (.465) and expected slugging rate (.662). Meanwhile, Grant Holmes will take the mound for the Braves on Thursday. He’s allowed a whopping 1.48 opponent home runs per nine in 2025. Soto is probably by favorite bet of this trio.
