This is the opener of a three-game series in New York between the Yankees and visiting Athletics.
Mitch Spence is scheduled to pitch for the Athletics while Will Warren should get the nod for New York.
Athletics at Yankees prediction, preview
Mitch Spence had a fairly successful campaign last season in 151.1 innings. The numbers this season are almost identical. The K/9 was 7.49 last season. It’s 7.67 this season. The BB/9 was 2.62 last season and it’s 2.61 this season. The differences are that he’s done a better job of keeping the ball in the yard (0.92 HR/9 vs. 1.19) and the FIP is much lower (3.77 vs. 4.21). The swinging strike rate is a decent 12.9% while the chase rate is 32.5%.
Left-handed batters are slashing .320/.364/.520 with four of the six home runs. The BABIP is an elevated .389 while the FIP is 4.14. Spence has been much better on the road (2.77 FIP vs. 4.82).
Spence spent most of the time in the bullpen. He’s started the last four games, pitching five, five, five and 4.2 innings. In his most recent outing, he allowed four earned runs. He pitched two innings against the Yankees back in May, allowing three earned runs while striking out four.
Against right-handed pitching, the Yankees have struck out at the eighth-highest rate while having the third-best ISO. The wOBA is third-best in MLB.
Will Warren is like the pretty girl that you know is trouble. The strikeout rate is a beautiful 29.4% while the FIP is 2.87 compared to the 4.66 ERA. But the average exit velocity is 91.3 mph while the hard hit rate is 48%.
Warren has shut down righties while lefties have had success. The FIP is 4.1 vs. 1.49 while five of the six home runs hit have come off lefties. The K-BB% is a whopping 30% against righties while it’s only 12.3% against lefties. Place of venue hasn’t made too much of a difference.
Warren has allowed over three earned runs four times, which includes seven earned runs allowed in only 1.1 innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Warren has pitched at least six innings only three times, although two of those have come in the most recent outings. Warren faced the Athletics back in May, striking out seven while allowing only one earned run in 7.1 innings.
The Athletics have struck out at the 17th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being ninth in ISO. The wOBA is 11th-best.
As for bullpens, the Athletics have the 27th-lowest FIP while New York has the 12th-lowest.
Athletics at Yankees, Best Bet
Give me the home team in this one. Lefties punish Spence and the short porch in right field will be a welcome sight for the Yankees. I expect Warren to stifle the Athletics once again.
