American League playoff contenders are set to meet on Wednesday in Cleveland. The Blue Jays are on fire, having won 28 of their last 40 games. The same can’t be said for the Guardians, who have gone 8-12 in June. Cleveland will look to get back on track against Toronto hurler Max Scherzer, making his first start since late March. What can bettors expect from the future Hall of Famer on the road tonight? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for this battle between the Blue Jays and Guardians.
The Guardians enter tonight as favorites (-123) over the Blue Jays, with the over/under set at eight runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook going into Wednesday’s contest.
Blue Jays at Guardians prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, the biggest headline in tonight’s contest is the return of Scherzer. The eight-time All-Star has been sidelined for nearly three months due to thumb inflammation; Wednesday will mark his second appearance of 2025. Last season wasn’t great for the veteran, then a member of the Rangers. During an injury-plagued 2024 campaign, the right-hander notched a 3.95 ERA over just nine outings. Fortunately for Max and the Blue Jays, Cleveland is scoring the sixth-fewest runs per game in baseball (3.79). Outside of Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan, no Guardians batters have a wRC+ greater than 107.
In this battle between youth and experience, the home team will counter with Gavin Williams. The 25-year-old has become Cleveland’s de-facto ace, emerging as one of the American League’s more promising starters. Over 75.1 innings of work, the righty owns a solid 3.58 ERA and 78 strikeouts. However, a 1.42 WHIP suggests that Williams could be due for some negative regression; his FIP is currently at 4.49. Tonight, the third-year pro will have to navigate a dangerous Toronto lineup. Since May 1st, the Blue Jays lead baseball with a .270 batting average. In addition, they rank third with a .771 OPS during that time.
The Guardians scored more than four runs in only two of their last 20 games. While one of those occasions occurred last night, it was Toronto that came away with a 10-6 victory. In contrast, the Blue Jays have reached the four-run plateau in over half of their last 20 contests. The biggest question mark tonight will be Scherzer, who hasn’t pitched at this ballpark in over a decade. Still, given how badly this Cleveland lineup has looked recently, there’s reason for optimism.
Blue Jays at Guardians pick, best bet
Best Bet: Blue Jays ML (+101)
If not for the uncertainty surrounding Scherzer, there’s no doubt the Jays would be favored here. Still, it’s clear that Williams has gotten lucky so far this season. A potent, contact-oriented Toronto lineup is well-positioned to take advantage of his mistakes. In addition, Cleveland’s bats have been ice-cold at the plate. As long as Max doesn’t get blown up, I like Canada’s team to earn another win tonight.
