This game feels like a turning point. Chicago just dropped two straight in this series and can’t afford to let St. Louis close the NL Central gap any further. Cubs fans have seen that before post-2016, especially with the Cardinals, but also with the Brewers. The Cubs’ ability to play any phase of good baseball altogether disappears. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Wednesday night baseball game between the Cardinals and the Cubs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction, preview
The Cubs roll in with Matthew Boyd, a left-hander who’s carved up lineups over his last five outings. He’s posted a 1.78 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in that span, struck out 22% of batters faced, and limited hard contact with a 26.5% hard-hit rate. Boyd is missing barrels and living in the zone, and that’s going to matter against a St. Louis offense that ranks 28th in wRC+ against lefties this year.
The Cardinals counter with Erick Fedde, who looks fine on the surface (3.54 ERA) but his underlying numbers scream regression. Fedde’s 4.99 xERA and 4.93 xFIP expose the cracks. His strikeout rate (14.7% vs. lefties) and soft-contact rate lag behind league average. That’s a disaster waiting to happen against this Cubs lineup, which ranks fourth in wRC+ (116) and slugging (.443) against right-handed pitching. Chicago is dangerous top to bottom — Nico Hoerner has a 128 wRC+ vs. righties, Seiya Suzuki’s 21 homers and 11.7% barrel rate make him a constant threat, and Kyle Tucker is a nightmare matchup for Fedde with a 153 wRC+ and 47.3% hard-hit rate this year.
You could point to St. Louis’ home record and Fedde’s ERA as counterarguments. I don’t buy it. Fedde has been lucky to post a sub-3.60 ERA despite ranking near the bottom of MLB in Stuff+ (91) and Pitching+ (98). The Cubs will punish his lack of swing-and-miss stuff and propensity to leave balls up — especially with a warm, humid night at Busch, light winds blowing out to left-center, and temperatures in the mid-80s creating a hitter’s paradise.
Cubs vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
Chicago’s relief corps has been nasty in June. They carry a 2.89 ERA with a 26.3% strikeout rate and a microscopic 0.38 HR/9 this month. Over their last seven games, they’ve allowed just two earned runs across 18.2 innings. That stretch includes an eye-popping 1.08 WHIP and a 7.5 K/BB ratio. It’s not luck — they’re generating weak contact at a 24.1% hard-hit rate and forcing ground balls on 46% of balls in play.
St. Louis’ bullpen? Night and day. They’ve posted a 4.76 ERA and a 4.38 xFIP in June, ranking 23rd in K-BB% at just 10.7%. Over their last seven games, they’ve been tagged for 9 earned runs across 20.1 innings — a 3.98 ERA — but that hides the real issue: a 1.41 WHIP, four blown leads, and a 1.32 HR/9 clip that’s cost them games late. Opposing hitters are barrelling the ball against this unit at a 9.8% clip this month.
The Cubs have covered the run line in eight of their last nine road games following a loss, while the Cardinals are just 2-5 in Fedde’s last seven starts. Chicago is also 18-2 after losing their last two games by one run or fewer. The trends scream a bounce-back.
With the wind at their back, the deeper bullpen, and a huge matchup edge at the plate, Chicago is going to jump Fedde early and lean on Boyd to hold up his end. The Cubs run away with this one and widen the gap in the division.
Best bet: Cubs -1.5 (+105) at Cardinals
Bounceback time for the Baby Cubs—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
