Wednesday is another busy day of baseball across the country. After two waves of two games in the afternoon, 22 teams are in action under the lights. Let’s take a look at those 11 games and find a few places to swing for the fences with home run props. Based on the matchup, environment and a player’s current form, my top three home run props on the board for Wednesday night are for Teoscar Hernandez, Trea Turner and Addison Barger.
Just a quick reminder before we step up to the plate and point to the flag pole—all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in less than half their games, home run props are never “safe” picks—even if every single factor seems to indicate a dinger is coming.
The upside to home run props is that the long odds mean big returns when they hit. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your hitters goes yard. Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be counted on since they are long shots. You can also combine these home run props with other picks into SGP or parlay plays, and I also like to play them at small money in round robins to boost their upside even higher if multiple picks hit it deep on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for today.
Best Home Run Player Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Teoscar Hernandez to record 1+ home runs (+275)
Let’s start with the obvious spot for homers this Wednesday night–Coors Field. Not only are the Dodgers in the elevation of Denver, but they also get a great matchup against Chase Dollander, who has the highest HR/9 of all pitchers starting on Wednesday with more than one start.
Dollander has served up 14 homers in his 12 starts, including eight home runs allowed in just 20 2/3 innings at Coors Field. While Shohei Ohtani and Max Muncy are strong options to consider as well, I’m going with Hernandez based on his odds and on Dollander’s splits. The young righty has given up six homers and a .375 wOBA to right-handed hitters on the year.
Hernandez has 14 homers in his 64 games this season, including four in his last 11 games. He has a 58.6% hard-hit rate and 20.7% barrel rate over those 11 games, including this smash on Saturday
While his odds aren’t extremely long since he’s at Coors, I still like his value opportunity to crush a dinger this Wednesday. I also included Teoscar in my top MLB DFS plays for Wednesday night in what should be a smash spot for the Dodgers.
Addison Barger to record 1+ home runs (+400)
Let’s head to one of the three games that start just before 7:00 p.m. ET, when the Blue Jays take on the Guardians in Cleveland. Four home runs left Progressive Field on Tuesday with George Springer’s Grand Slam powering the Jays to a 10-9 win. Barger wasn’t in the lineup since lefty Logan Allen started for Cleveland, but he should be back in the batting order on Wednesday against the righty Gavin Williams.
Williams has given up 10 homers in his 15 starts this season, including five in his 40 2/3 innings at home. Lefties like Barger have six of those long balls even though they’re only hitting .155 in the split.
Barger has brought plenty of power potential since joining the Blue Jays, smashing eight homers in his 54 games in the majors. He has excellent batted ball metrics with a 51.9% hard-hit rate and 14.3% barrel rate, giving him a .377 xwOBA.
Six of Barger’s eight homers have come in his last 20 games, and he most recently homered last Tuesday with this walk-off against Arizona.
I love the value in Barger at +400 and think he’s in an underrated matchup to deliver a long ball on Wednesday night.
Trea Turner to record 1+ home runs (+500)
Turner isn’t always primarily a home run hitter, but he goes through bursts of power production and is in a good spot on Wednesday as his Phillies continue their series in Houston.
Four of Turner’s nine homers this season have come in his last 20 games, and he has a .375 wOBA and .301 batting average during that span, along with a 48.6% hard-hit rate. He has multiple hard-hit batted-ball events in 13 of those 20 games and had three in his four at-bats on Tuesday.
Turner has hit all nine of his homers on the road, where he has a .365 wOBA, and he has hit three of them against lefties like Colton Gordon, who he’ll face on Wednesday.
Gordon has allowed eight homers in his seven starts this season and comes into this matchup with a 4.54 ERA and 4.59 FIP. Most of his troubles have been at home, where he has a 5.31 ERA and has given up five homers and a .399 wOBA to right-handed hitters like Turner.
