On Wednesday afternoon, two of the MLB’s brightest young stars square off in a showdown between otherworldly arms as the Milwaukee Brewers host the Pittsburgh Pirates.
This contest already held intrigue as an NL Central rivalry, but the matchup between starting pitchers Paul Skenes and Jacob Misiorowski takes the affair over the top into must-see TV territory. Who will win this battle between an established superstar and a much-hyped rookie gunning for his spot?
Find out with this Brewers vs. Pirates prediction and pick for Wednesday as these teams wrap up the three-game series.
Brewers vs. Pirates prediction, preview
Milwaukee Brewers
Watch out, here come the Brewers — Milwaukee now sits 44-36 on the campaign and within striking distance of the NL Central’s first-place Chicago Cubs. The Brewers do remain 2.5 games back of the leaders, but they’re 7-3 across their last 10 games and 13-8 this month. They’re heating up at the right time as the midseason mark draws near and the trade deadline looms in the distance.
The Brewers have much of what it takes to compete for a legitimate playoff run. While they’re 17th in AVG and 18th in OPS overall, the team ranks ninth in runs scored on the year and has seen all of these marks improve pretty significantly over their 21 games this month. They’re fourth in AVG during June, eighth in OPS and sixth in runs, so things are starting to fall into place if the bats can keep this up. Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich, Sal Frelick, Rhys Hoskins and Bryce Turang make for a solid offensive structure, and William Contreras seems like he’s shaking off his recent slump too. Plus, the team emphasizes stolen bases with 97, the second-most in the league.
The pitching staff ranks 12th in ERA and 19th in WHIP league-wide while sitting middle-of-the-pack in strikeouts. Those numbers may soon increase with the introduction of Misiorowski into the starting rotation since the first-year fireballer boasts such an impressive track record across Triple-A ball and his first couple of MLB starts. If he pans out as anticipated and the Brewers add an arm or two in the bullpen, they’ll become a team to really keep an eye on in the late summer months heading into the fall.
Pittsburgh Pirates
As for the visiting Pirates, the team sits last place in the NL Central by a double-digit margin. They’re firmly entrenched there at 32-49 this year thanks to a litany of issues primarily stemming from the miniscule payroll and a lack of offensive talent.
Pittsburgh’s bats rank 27th in AVG and 29th in OPS, so it’s not much of a surprise they also fall second-to-last in runs scored this season. The Pirates also strike out a ton and are tied for fourth in that stat, but much like the Brewers, a redeeming quality is that they’re inside the top five in stolen bases with 71 on the year. At an individual level, it’s certainly not great that only three batters — Nick Gonzales, Andrew McCutchen and Oneil Cruz — boast an OPS above .700. Gonzales’ mark of .875 in the stat remains a team-high, but he’s only seen 79 at-bats, a very small sample size.
The irony here feels palpable in that the Pirates not only deploy one of the MLB’s three best pitchers in Skenes, but that their staff as a whole actually puts up some pretty respectable numbers. Pittsburgh ranks 14th in team ERA and eighth in WHIP while allowing the eighth-lowest opponent AVG and fifth-fewest home runs. Sure, Skenes inflates the numbers a bit but their stable of arms are solid enough that if the bats were decent, the team could probably compete in this division.
Brewers vs. Pirates pick, best bet
Before diving into the odds for Wednesday’s game, keep in mind the Pirates won the first game of this series 5-4 before the Brewers took a 9-3 win last night. For today’s contest, DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Pirates as -119 favorites on the Moneyline while the Brewers aren’t far behind at -102 odds to win outright. The run total of 6.5 is the lowest on today’s slate.
As mentioned earlier, the duel on the mound in this matinee looks like one for the ages as Misiorowski and Skenes square off.
The Brewers’ 23-year-old rookie made his MLB debut just 13 days ago and has two starts to his name thus far. He went 11.0 innings across those two contests with 11 strikeouts to five walks, giving up just one hit — a homer for two earned runs. His ERA and WHIP sit at 1.64 and 0.55, respectively. Misiorowski is a fireballer with a triple-digit fastball in his arsenal that competes pound-for-pound with Skenes’ as one of the nastiest in the game already.
As for Skenes, he’s an established name by now and needs no long introduction. Also 23 years old, the right-hander’s numbers look much like Misiorowski’s, albeit over a much larger sample size. Skenes’ 102 innings this season have seen him accumulate 106 strikeouts with a 1.85 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. His savant page remains scarlet-red as he grades out in the 70th percentile or better in nearly every single category, including 96th-percentile fastball velo with an average of 98.0 mph.
With such talented hurlers taking the field, one betting pick makes far more sense than the others here. The run total of 6.5 looks very low but we already know Skenes is borderline unhittable. Misiorowski might fall into the same category, especially against a lineup that generally struggles at the plate. At -102 odds on the under here, that’s the direction I’m taking heading into this eye-popping pitching duel.
Best bet: Under 6.5 runs (-102)
Click the odds to tail!
