The Brewers and Pirates meet in a fun NL Central showdown on Wednesday afternoon in a matchup of two of the best young pitchers in the game. Jacob Misiorowski has dazzled in his first two MLB starts, and he’ll go head-to-head in this spotlight matchup against Paul Skenes of the Pirates. Let’s take a look at the matchup and zoom in on the best prop to back for Misiorowski.
In the big picture, the game is basically a coin flip with the Brewers at -110 on the moneyline and the Pirates at -111. The run line for the matchup is 6.5.
Jacob Misiorowski Under 3.5 Hits Allowed (-115)
The Pirates are a great matchup for Misiorowski, and the lanky 6-foot-7 righty should be set up to continue his dominant start to his career. Misiorowski has pitched 11 innings in his two starts against the Cardinals and Twins, allowing two runs and five walks but only a single hit against him.
He is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA, 3.62 FIP and 11 strikeouts in 11 innings, but the stat that stands out the most is that one lonely hit against him. He has limited opponents to just a 27.3% hard-hit rate even when they are able to put the ball in play.
In his time at Triple-A, Misiorowski went 4-2 in 12 starts with a 2.13 ERA and 3.36 FIP. He gave up three hits or fewer in three of his last four minor league outings as well as in his first two MLB starts. In the minors, opponents had just a .172 batting average against him, and in the majors, it’s even lower at .030.
While he probably won’t be able to sustain that incredible pace long-term, he shouldn’t be in too much danger of horrible regression against the Pirates, who have a .229 batting average on the season, the fourth-lowest in the majors. On the road, they are hitting .215, which is only better than the Rockies in all of Major League Baseball. In their 40 road games, they are averaging only 7.2 hits per game, and since Misiorowski has been so dominant, I don’t think they’ll be able to get to four against him this Wednesday afternoon.
