The Houston Astros bested the Philadelphia Phillies in last night’s contest, a 1-0 nailbiter in which the lone run came from a late-inning homer by journeyman Cooper Hummel. Tonight, these teams square off once more at Daikin Park as superstar Zack Wheeler takes the mound for Philadelphia against a young, unproven lefty in Houston’s Colton Gordon.
Here’s an Astros vs. Phillies prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s 8:10 p.m. EST first pitch.
Astros vs. Phillies prediction, preview
Houston Astros
The Astros advanced to 46-33 on the season and 15-6 in June with yesterday’s win and they still hold the MLB’s best record this month. Their home-park record improved to 28-13 as well last night. Make no mistake, the Stros are still for real atop the AL West despite losing a couple of stars over the offseason and dealing with numerous injuries during this campaign.
The team ranks third in AVG but their ranking in OPS and runs faltered last night to 15th and 19th, respectively. The Astros are still riding a hot hitting streak over the last couple of weeks though, so while the matchup against Wheeler tonight looks difficult after facing Ranger Suarez yesterday, there’s still hope for the bats tonight. Even if they don’t hit well this evening, yesterday emphasized that Houston just needs their pitchers to show up to win. With one of the best staffs in baseball at fifth in ERA, second in WHIP and first in strikeouts (by a 47-K margin now), the Astros only need a couple of runs to win games.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies still hold one of the MLB’s best records at 47-32, but every loss means the Mets inch closer in the NL East standings. They’re certainly aware of that aspect entering tonight with just a 1.5-game lead, so even in a non-division game the stakes feel a bit elevated.
Philadelphia fell all the way to fifth in AVG and 11th in runs last night but stayed put at eighth in OPS. The Phillies are also hitting the ball well in recent weeks with a hot stretch of their own, so yesterday’s four-hit game feels more like a temporary setback than a sign they’re slowing down. The pitching staff did jump to 13th in ERA and 16th in WHIP, plus they’re still third in strikeouts. Wheeler should put on quite the performance this evening, but more on that in a moment.
Astros vs. Phillies pick, best bet
In tonight’s battle, the Phillies are -158 favorites on the Moneyline while the Astros hold +129 odds to win outright. Those marks and the 7.5 run total are certainly influenced by the pitching matchup.
The Phillies see a very significant advantage as Wheeler takes the mound this evening. He’s one of the MLB’s elite arms with a 3.29 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and an impressive 118 strikeouts across 93.0 innings this season. No offense to the Astros’ starter, but Colton Gordon appears far outmatched with his 4.54 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 34 punchouts in 35.2 innings, though his sample size remains limited.
With a career-high 11.42 K/9 and the fifth-most strikeouts in the MLB, Wheeler should put on another strong performance tonight in that column. Even against a Houston team with the sixth-fewest strikeouts, Wheeler’s stuff is unreal and he’s among the best pitchers in the game for a reason. I’m targeting 8+ strikeouts without a second thought here.
Best bet: Zack Wheeler 8+ strikeouts (-105)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
