Today, two of the brightest young stars in baseball meet for the first time. When he entered the big leagues fresh off of an illustrious career at LSU, Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes was a can’t-miss prospect, and he didn’t disappoint, pitching six no-hit innings in his second career start.
His opponent tonight, Milwaukee Brewers youngster Jacob Misiorowski, wasn’t quite as much of a sure thing. However, the six-foot-seven flamethrower has gotten off to an even better MLB start than Skenes, conceding zero hits for his first 11 innings in the majors before giving up a two-run shot to Matt Wallner in the second inning of his second appearance.
The game is effectively a toss-up, with Pittsburgh -110 on the Moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook and Milwaukee at -111. The run total is set for 6.5. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bets centered around Skenes for today’s highly-anticipated pitching battle.
Best Paul Skenes Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Paul Skenes U1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-135)
Simply put, the mustached Californian is the best pitcher in baseball, leading all of the major leagues in WAR and ERA and the National League in WHIP, hits per nine innings, and homers per nine innings. There are teams who are able to hit Skenes — the St. Louis Cardinals, for instance, scored five runs in six innings on April 8 — but I’m not sure that the Brewers are one of them.
Milwaukee has the league’s 10th-lowest OPS this season, and its specific weaknesses match Skenes’. The sole Statcast category in which he is not squarely above-average is his hard-hit percentage, which ranks in just the 56th percentile. That shouldn’t be a problem against the Brewers, who have recorded hard hits at the fourth-lowest rate. He has faced Milwaukee twice in his career, giving up one run and four hits with three walks and 19 strikeouts across 13 innings.
Paul Skenes Race to Three Strikeouts (-110)
In theory, this prop bet favors Milwaukee’s starter. Misiorowski will always pitch the top of the inning, he’ll have the first chance to rack up strikeouts, and if he strikes out the side in the top of the first inning, this prop will be over before Skenes even has the chance to touch the mound. Misiorowski also has a marginally higher strikeout percentage than Skenes — 29.7% to 27.2% — and the Pirates strike out more frequently than the Brewers do.
But Misiorowski takes time to work into the game; so far, he’s thrown four strikeouts in six innings between the first and third innings of his two career starts and seven across five innings between the fourth and sixth in those outings. Skenes, meanwhile, has 51 strikeouts in 48 innings in the first three innings this season and 55 strikeouts in 54 innings across the subsequent six. He has also averaged nearly two more strikeouts per nine innings on the road than at home.
