Last time they took the pitch, Canada had a chance to officially punch its ticket to the knockout stages of the CONCACAF Gold Cup by beating Curaçao. But in a rare slip-up for one of the world’s fastest-rising national teams — they’ve gone from 50th to 30th in the last year alone — Canada could only muster a draw.
Still, a point against bottom-of-the-table El Salvador will be good enough to go through, since second-place Honduras (three points) and third-place Curaçao (two) will play each other. They’ll also qualify if they lose by fewer than four goals, given their eight-goal edge in goal difference over El Salvador.
Canada is a -475 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with El Salvador at +1300 and a draw at +600.
Canada vs. El Salvador prediction, pick
Canada looked guaranteed to advance for 85 minutes, taking a 1-0 lead behind a ninth-minute goal by Nathan Saliba, but there wasn’t much action after that as it only managed six shots total (three on goal) and controlled 52% of possession. Curaçao played Canada, 60 places ahead of it in the world rankings, dead even, pushing for a goal and finally being rewarded in the 94th minute, when Joshua Zimmerman assisted Jeremy Antonisse for to snatch a point from the Canadians’ grasp. It was a remarkable result against a strong Canada squad: Lille star Jonathan David, who tied for fourth in Ligue 1 with 21 goal contributions, played all 90 minutes.
El Salvador, meanwhile, failed to pick up a point against Honduras — who Canada had previously thrashed, 6-0 — despite recording 62% possession. The Salvadorans managed to get just one shot on target out of their seven, and none of their 26 crosses amounted to anything. It was an easy night in the office for Honduran goalkeeper Edrick Menjívar, and Mario González’s one-save performance wasn’t good enough for El Salvador. It was a very uninspired defensive performance overall; El Salvador managed just four tackles and two interceptions all game. The result was especially unimpressive given that Luis Palma, Honduras’ best player and the sixth-most valuable player in all of Central America, played just one minute.
The defense has been fine; El Salvador has conceded just two goals all tournament, both to Honduras. But the attack has been miserable, managing to put just two of 13 shots on target. Brayan Gil, who starred for Colombia’s Tolima and led them to a title in the top division before moving to Russian side Baltika Kaliningrad, hasn’t scared the net with any of his three shots. Besides that, Hernan Dario Gomez has been relying on veteran Jairo Henríquez, who plays in the United States’ second tier, and Harold Osorio, who’s played just one minute this season with Major League Soccer’s Chicago Fire. That’s not enough firepower to contend with a Canadian back line that includes Celtic star Alistair Johnson, who led the Scottish Premiership in assists this season while also recording 3.01 tackles per 90 minutes.
Canada probably won’t start a full-strength side, needing simply to lose by three goals or less to advance, and Tani Oluwaseyi, who’s played nearly every minute and leads the team with eight total shots, is the most likely to sit, as well as David. Canada’s advantageous position should open the door for less-heralded players to see more playing time, and so far, Tajon Buchanan (two goals in three shots) and Promise David (one goal in two shots) have taken advantage. González, who plays domestically with San Salvador-based Alianza, is no match for the Belgian league’s fifth-top scorer.
