Goodness gracious are the Nationals ever in a nosedive. While the team is technically 2-2 in its last four contests, Thursday’s 4-3 win over the Rockies not only prevented a four-game sweep at the hands of a historically bad team, but it also ended an 11-game losing streak. Woof.
The Padres aren’t exactly coming into this series red-hot, either. Though San Diego did take two of the three from Kansas City this past weekend, the Padres had dropped three straight divisional series coming into that clash with the Royals, including two sets with the Dodgers. As we close in on the halfway point of the regular season, San Diego sits a half-game out of a Wild Card spot and five games back of Los Angeles in the NL West.
Let’s preview this National League matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nationals vs. Padres prediction, preview
Mitchell Parker is coming off one of his best starts of the season, holding the Rockies to a single earned run over six innings with eight strikeouts. Still, it’s not like besting a woeful Colorado lineup away from Coors Field is all that big an accomplishment. In general, Parker has struggled a great deal the past two months, pitching to a 6.75 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP over his last 10 outings. It’s a span of time where the left-hander is walking 9.3% of the batters he’s faced and allowing 1.50 opponent home runs per nine. In other words, he’s been a major reason for the Nationals’ recent struggles and it’s not shocking to find out that the team has lost each of Parker’s past five starts.
One thing Parker does have working in his favor on Monday is that the Padres have been a much better run-producing unit when facing a right-handed opponent in 2025. To wit, San Diego sports above league average marks in both wOBA (.316) and wRC+ (104) against RHPs, yet those numbers fall off a cliff when opposed by a southpaw. In fact, the Padres’ .118 ISO within the split ranks 24th in MLB. The squad’s 83 wRC+ sits 20th. The only bright spot has been Manny Machado, who has been red-hot in general since the beginning of May. In his last 204 plate appearances, Machado is slashing .320/.387/.541 with a .400 wOBA. In that 55 PAs in that stretch that have been versus LHPs, Machado owns a .340 ISO and a 170 wRC+.
Tonight also contains a very interesting matchup between Stephen Kolek and a Washington lineup that is exceedingly left-handed. Kolek has started nine games for San Diego is 2025 and his handedness splits are severe. While the RHP has limited opposing right-handers to a .211 average with a .222 wOBA, lefties are slashing .293/.390/.495 off the former reliever. The Nationals are not the team that an arm like Kolek wants to face. Including switch-hitters Josh Bell and Keibert Ruiz, Washington will likely have seven LHBs in its lineup this evening. That includes young star James Wood, who has registered a 171 wRC+ off RHPs this season — the sixth-highest qualified mark in baseball.
Nationals vs. Padres pick, best bet
Best Bet: Nationals ML (+144)
It’s worth a shot. The Padres don’t hit LHPs well and the Nationals’ lineup sets up perfectly against Kolek.
Strong Lean: James Wood 2+ Total Bases (+140)
Machado is also worth a look in this market, though he’s got much shorter odds at -105.
