This is the opener of a three-game series in Cleveland between the Guardians and visiting Toronto Blue Jays.
Eric Lauer is scheduled to pitch for Toronto while Logan Allen should get the nod for Cleveland.
Blue Jays at Guardians prediction, preview
Eric Lauer only averages 91.9 mph on the fastball, but he’s impressively been able to miss bats for most of his career. The strikeout rate has been above 20% in every season but two, and those finished at 19.8% and 19.7%. He doesn’t get batters to chase and the swinging strike rate tops out around 10%. Veteran savvy. Now, the 2.29 ERA in 35.1 innings isn’t all that it’s cooked up to be. The FIP is much higher at 3.61 while the BABIP is only .212 with an elevated 88.4% strand rate. The average exit velocity is 91.2 mph while the hard hit rate is 47.2%.
In terms of splits, the only thing that stands out is that he’s been very fortunate against righties. That will likely change sooner than later, although we never know exactly when the regression fairies will sprinkle their dust.
Lauer has started four games and pitched relief in six others. He has yet to pitch more than five innings in any contest, although that came in his most recent outing against Arizona in which he struck out eight while giving up only one earned run. He’s allowed at least three earned runs only once this season. This will be the first time pitching against the Guardians this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Guardians have struck out at the ninth-highest rate while having the 28th-best ISO. The wOBA is 28th-best in MLB.
Logan Allen has not been on a positive trend to start his career. In three MLB seasons, the strikeout rate has decreased (22.2% to 17.1%) while the walk rate has increased (8.9% to 10.3%) every season. He’s only averaging 90.9 mph on the fastball and is posting a 4.21 ERA, which is supported by the 4.58 FIP. The swinging strike rate is only 7.5% (ninth-worst in MLB) while the chase rate is 23.4% (eighth-worst).
Lefties have crushed Allen this season, as the HR/9 is 2.08 while the FIP is 6.38. He’s been meh both at home and on the road.
Allen has allowed more than three earned runs four times this season, with a high of seven earned runs in 4.1 innings against the Boston Red Sox way back in late April. He hasn’t gone into the seventh inning in any start but has thrown six innings three times, with two of those in the last three starts. Allen faced Toronto back on May 2nd, going 5.2 innings and allowing two earned runs, one walk while striking out four. That game was in Toronto.
The Blue Jays have struck out at the 30th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 18th in ISO. The wOBA is 18th-best.
As for bullpens, Toronto has the eighth-lowest FIP while Cleveland has the fifth-lowest.
Blue Jays at Guardians, Best Bet
I’m going to get a little saucy with this one. I’m not a fan of Lauer and it scares me that regression could happen at any point. That said, the Blue Jays have been poor against left-handed pitching this season. On the flip side, I don’t think Toronto will crush Allen, but I think they can put up just enough to have that -1.5 for +142 odds in play.
