The Mariners and Twins aren’t separated by many games, but their playoff outlook looks drastically difference due to division makeup.
The AL Central is led by the dominant Tigers, who have an 8.5-game lead over the second place Guardians and 11-game lead over the Twins. Meanwhile, the Mariners are in second place, five games back from the Astros in the AL West.
Monday’s Twins vs. Mariners matchup features Bailey Ober and Bryan Woo on the mound. And as with any Seattle game, Cal Raleigh is the headliner.
The Mariners are -132 favorites on the moneyline, and the game total is set at 8.5 runs on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Twins are +108 underdogs.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Monday’s Mariners vs. Twins matchup.
Mariners vs. Twins prediction
The Mariners have a slight advantage in the win column, but the Twins aren’t far behind. Both teams allow a similar amount of runs, while the Mariners are a bit better on offense.
That should be the case especially in Monday’s series opener. The Mariners have scored eight, one, nine, seven and 14 runs in their last five games, winning three. Their offense has caught fire, and much of it has to do with the consistent excellence of Raleigh.
The All-Star catcher is having an MVP-caliber season with a .276 average, 31 home runs, 66 RBI and 1.042 OPS. He’s also hit a homer in three straight games entering Monday’s contest.
He’ll face off against Ober, who is struggling this season. Ober has allowed at least four earned runs in three straight games, including seven against a weak Rangers offense. He’s also allowed at least one earned run in all 15 starts this season.
On the other side, the Mariners are starting Woo, who has been solid this season. Woo is pitching to a 3.12 ERA and is coming off a seven-inning, one-hit outing against the Red Sox.
Additionally, the Twins’ offense hasn’t been as rambunctious as of late. A combination of that and Woo’s great season works in Seattle’s favor.
Mariners vs. Twins pick, best bet
Although starting pitchers have an important job, they’re not the only pitchers to enter the game. The bullpen is sometimes even more crucial to a squad, especially with teams utilizing an “opener” for a bullpen game.
This isn’t a bullpen game for either squad, but it’s impossible to ignore the advantage Seattle has in this category. The Mariners have a 3.69 bullpen ERA, which ranks 13th in the major, while the Twins have a 4.34 ERA, good for 21st.
Woo should pitch into the sixth inning at least, but it’s relieving (pun not intended) that the Seattle bullpen typically does a nice job wrapping things up.
With the pitching advantage and Raleigh in the lineup, Seattle -1.5 at +129 is the way to go.