This is the second game of a three-game series in Cincinnati between the Reds and visiting New York Yankees.
Carlos Rodon is scheduled to pitch for New York while Chase Burns should get the nod for Cincinnati.
Yankees at Reds prediction, preview
Carlos Rodon has been pretty, pretty good through 95.2 innings. The strikeout rate is a robust 30% while the K-BB% is 21.3%. The swinging strike rate is 13.4% while the chase rate is 33.5%. The barrel rate is 9.1%, though, while the hard hit rate is 40.4%. He’s allowed 13 home runs and walked 33 batters and the BABIP is .221, so it’s not been all sunshine and unicorns. The FIP is higher at 3.58 compared to the 3.1 ERA.
Rodon has been effective against both lefties and righties, but righties have hit 10 of the 13 home runs allowed. Rodon has been much better on the road.
Rodon has allowed more than three earned runs five times while pitching a shutout four times. He’s gotten into the seventh inning four times. In his three most recent contests, Rodon has allowed three, three and five earned runs. This will be the first time facing the Reds this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Reds have struck out at the 15th-highest rate while having the 20th-best ISO. The wOBA is 21st-best in MLB.
Chase Burns will be making his MLB debut. He was selected second overall by the Reds in the 2024 MLB Draft. He is 6’3″, 210 pounds and throws from the right side. The fastball averages in the upper 90s and can get above 100 mph. His slider is sublime while the curveball gives him a third pitch to confound batters. In 66 minor league innings across three levels, Burns posted a 12.14 K/9, 1.77 BB/9 and 0.68 HR/9. The ERA was 1.77 with a 2.13 FIP.
The Yankees have struck out at the eighth-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being second in ISO. The wOBA is third-best.
As for bullpens, New York has the 11th-lowest FIP while Cincinnati has the 25th-lowest.
Yankees at Reds, Best Bet
Most young pitchers have control issues and I’m sure the Yankees will make Burns work. New York is third in walk rate against right-handed pitching. That said, Burns has exhibited excellent control in his brief minor league career and has the stuff to challenge and baffle hitters. Rodon has been very good and has pitched much better on the road. Granted, this game is in Great American Small Park, but I like both pitchers to have success in stymying the opposing bats.
