Monday gets another great work week of baseball off to a strong start with nine games on the schedule under the lights. From the 18 starting pitchers taking the mound, there are some very solid starting pitcher prop bets that stand out to me as some of the best bets on the slate. Today’s top props include selections from Allan Winans, Ben Brown and Walker Buehler.
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Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Allan Winans to record a win (+240)
Winans is making a spot start for the Yankees on the road in Cincinnati. He’ll have to contend with Great American Ball Park, which isn’t ideal, but the 29-year-old has been absolutely dominant in Triple-A, and I think he’ll give the Yankees enough good innings to get the win in the long-shot bet for the first of my starting pitcher prop bets for the day.
Winans went 7-0 in his 11 games in Triple-A with an ultra-impressive 0.90 ERA and 2.41 FIP. He gave up just five earned runs in 50 innings while racking up 59 strikeouts and holding opponents to a 33.3% hard-hit rate. He will start in place of Ryan Yarbrough (oblique), but it may not be a long-term option for him to stick in the rotation with Marcus Stroman (knee) returning soon.
The Yankees have been struggling lately, but they turned it around with three wins in their last four games after dropping six straight. As they take on lefty Nick Lodolo, they’ll be in a good spot to get Winans the run support he needs, and I think he’ll pitch well enough to give him a good shot at a win even at +240.
It’s a long-shot pick since lots has to fall right for any “to record a win” prop to hit, but this number seems way too long for how well Winans has been dealing lately.
Starting Pitcher Race to 3 Strikeouts (Both Pitchers Must Start): Ben Brown over Matthew Liberatore (-125)
Let’s head to the NL Central for the second of my starting pitcher prop bets and swing to St. Louis, where the Cards host the Cubs. I’m targeting this quick-hit strikeout race and taking the road pitcher in Ben Brown. I highlighted Brown in my value plays of the day for MLB DFS since he brings a high upside despite some inconsistent outings.
Brown has a 26.3% strikeout rate this season with a 10.6 K/9. Whether he is pitching a shutout or getting hammered, he always seems to deliver good strikeout production. He had at least five strikeouts in each of his last four games, including six shutout innings in one game and giving up six runs to the Phillies in another. Brown always delivers the punchouts, though, which is why this is my favorite way to back him this Monday.
He’ll have to overcome the advantage that Liberatore has of pitching first in each half inning. In his 14 starts, though, Liberatore has a 20.1% strikeout rate and just 7.5 K/9. He has only 10 strikeouts in his last three games total, so it may take him a while to get to three against the Cubs in this one.
The two teams’ batters strike out at an identical 20.5% rate this season, although the Cubs strike out slightly less over the last 30 days. Since Brown is so much more of a strikeout pitcher, I think he can overcome Liberatore’s head start and win this race to three strikeouts on Monday night.
Walker Buehler over 5.5 hits allowed (+115)
The Red Sox are in Anaheim to face the Angels, and they’ll give the ball to Walker Buehler, who looked strong early in the year but has been scuffling lately.
Buehler has a 5.95 ERA, 5.34 FIP and 1.51 WHIP on the season, but in his last four starts, he has a 10.50 ERA, 7.35 FIP and has given up a total of 31 hits in 18 innings. He has given up at least six hits in each of those four outings, three of which have been on the road like this matchup.
Getting Buehler to give up this many hits at plus-money is mostly because of the Angels struggling at the plate. While the Halos don’t have a lot of power, they have been hitting for better average lately and have 56 hits in their seven games over the last week.
Buehler has given up over this many hits in games he has won and games he has been hammered over the last stretch, and even when he has been able to limit damage, he has been giving up over this many hits.
The Red Sox need some length from him after a couple of rough games in San Francisco, so they’ll probably let the veteran ride as long as possible in the first game of this series. With Jack Kochanowicz pitching for the Angels, I like the Red Sox as one of my top MLB stacks of the day in a game where I expect hits and runs to be flowing freely on both sides of the matchup.
