After a power-packed weekend, 18 of the 30 teams in Major League Baseball will take the field on Monday night. With temperatures rising and carrying baseballs well, batters smashed 128 home runs over the weekend, more than any this season. While the top homer-happy ballparks aren’t in play on Monday night, the heatwave on the East Coast offers some nice home run conditions. Let’s dive into the slate and hunt down some home run props st art the work week with a smile. Considering the many factors that go into hitting home runs, including matchups, environment and a player’s current form, my top three home run props this Monday are from Ramon Laureano, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Marcelo Mayer.
Just a quick reminder before we swing for the fences—all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in less than half their games, home run props are never “safe” picks—even if every single indicator seems to be flashing in their favor.
The upside to home run props is that the long odds mean big returns when they hit. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your hitters delivers. Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be counted on since they are long shots. You can also combine these home run props with other picks into SGP or parlay plays, and I also like to play them at small money in round robins to boost their upside even higher if multiple picks hit on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for today.
Best Home Run Player Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Ramon Laureano to record 1+ home runs (+550)
While it’s no Coors Field or Sutter Health Park, Oriole Park at Camden Yards has been very hitter and home run-friendly this season. The game-time temperature for this early game is expected to be near 100, which should create plenty of carry if players can make good contact.
The O’s open the series by facing lefty Patrick Corbin, which does limit some of their top home run options due to the lefty-lefty matchup. Laureano has been one of their top right-handed bats and should get the start with a good chance to go deep even at these value odds. Laureano has nine homers in his 51 games this season, including two in his last nine games. He missed time early in the month with an ankle sprain, but has shown good pop since his return. He has a 42.1% hard-hit rate over his last nine games with at least one hard-hit batted ball event in six of his last seven.
The free agent addition has hit .280 with a .367 wOBA at home this season, and he should be set up well against Corbin, who has had a bounce-back year but still given up 11 homers in 13 starts. He has held lefties to a .194 batting average but righties have a .265 batting average, eight home runs, and a .331 wOBA.
At odds over +500, Laureano is definitely a long shot to go deep on Monday, but I think he brings a lot more potential to our home run props than those odds indicate and has a chance to go deep in hot and humid Baltimore in the first game of the night.
Ronald Acuna Jr. to record 1+ home runs (+320)
Acuna homered last week against Paul Blackburn in Atlanta on the first pitch of the game.
The weather on Monday at Citi Field is forecast to be very homer-friendly as well, and Acuna has been on fire since returning from the IL after his latest knee injury.
Acuna has eight homers in his 27 games with a 57.7% hard-hit rate and 18.3% barrel rate. His average exit velocity of 93.6 miles per hour would rank 14th in the majors if he had enough at-bats to qualify. He has a .506 wOBA and 230 wRC+ since returning and has been exceptional at the top of the Braves’ order.
Seven of his eight homers have come against righties, against whom he has a .449 batting average and .548 wOBA. He always has the potential to go yard, especially in this favorable matchup and environment as he visits his younger brother’s team in New York and faces Blackburn once again.
Marcelo Mayer to record 1+ home runs (+500)
Mayer wasn’t regarded as a big-time power prospect, but he has hit four homers for the Red Sox in his 24 games in the majors. His power numbers were up in Triple-A this year as well before his promotion. Last year, he hit just eight homers in 77 games in Double-A for the Portland Sea Dogs, but this year, he hit nine homers in 43 games in Worcester.
His four homers in 24 games in the majors are backed up by an impressive 62.2% hard-hit rate and 11.1% barrel rate in his 24 games. The rookie is hitting only .197 with a 30.1% K%, but when he does make contact, the ball has been flying.
The lefty will get a good matchup against Jack Kochanowicz and the Angels on Monday night in Anaheim. Kochanowicz has a 5.38 ERA and 5.69 FIP, and he has been especially hittable by lefties like Mayer. Left-handed hitters are hitting .305 against Kochanowicz this season with a .400 wOBA and 13 home runs in 200 plate appearances.
Mayer’s home run props come at juicy odds of +500, but given how hard he’s been hitting it and all the good contact allowed by Kochanowicz, I like his chances to close out the slate with a boom in the late game from the West Coast.
