In the MLB’s evening window, a surging Milwaukee Brewers lineup hosts the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 7:40 p.m. EST first pitch. With the Brew Crew fighting to climb in the NL Central, a win tonight is imperative against a struggling Pirates squad which sits last place in the division.
Here’s a Brewers vs. Pirates prediction and pick for tonight’s outing, which kicks off a three-game series.
Brewers vs. Pirates prediction, preview
Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers have begun rounding into form over the last couple of weeks. At 43-35, they’ve climbed all the way to second place in the NL Central, 3.5 games back of the first-place Cubs and just one game ahead of the third-place Cardinals. At 7-3 across their last 10 games and 12-7 in June so far, they’re a real threat to gain some ground and potentially challenge for the division.
Milwaukee’s bats rank 18th in AVG and 19th in OPS, however, those marks improve to fourth and 12th this month. The Brewers sit 10th in runs scored and eighth in walks drawn, so they’re generally performing at the plate. Plus, their 96 stolen bases are the second-most of any team thanks to Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio and Sal Frelick, each of whom ranks inside the top-25 in the category league-wide.
Milwaukee’s pitching staff remains a bit less impressive than the offense at 14th in ERA and 19th in WHIP overall. While they’re 14th in strikeouts, they’re 25th in walks allowed and need to improve in that regard. If you believe in the bats, though, this team looks an arm or two away from making some noise come playoff time.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The visiting Pirates have seen far less success this season than their division rivals. At 31-48, continued losses and what to do with superstar pitcher Paul Skenes are the story of the campaign to this point. Though they’ve won two of their last four contests, the Pirates are 3-7 across their last 10 games and hold the MLB’s third-worst record on the road at 11-27.
Pittsburgh ranks 28th in AVG and 29th in OPS overall with just 257 runs, the fewest in baseball. The latter statistic is due in no small part to their league-worst 53 home runs as a lack of power bats continues to bite, but really, the issue is just batting in general. Only three players with at least 100 at-bats boast a .250 AVG or better, and if you can’t hit the ball, well… it’s simply tough to win.
The good news is that the Pirates’ pitching ranks 11th in ERA and fifth in WHIP, so even though the numbers are inflated by Skenes’ impressive numbers, the rest of the staff also holds their own. They may be bottom-five in strikeouts, but Pittsburgh’s arms nearly crack the top-10 in walks allowed while also conceding the fifth-fewest homers. That’s the frustrating part — if they had a better stable of hitters, they could very well compete for a playoff spot.
Brewers vs. Pirates pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Brewers are listed as a -183 Moneyline favorite at home. The Pirates hold +149 odds on the Moneyline with a run total of 8.5.
The Brewers start right-hander Chad Patrick, a 26-year-old rookie with 15 starts to his name. He’s thrown to the tune of a 3.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, respectable numbers especially for his first season in the pros. With 76 strikeouts in 79.2 innings, he’s sitting plenty of batters down and sits 61st-percentile in chase percentage, though he’s just 25th-percentile in whiff percentage.
He duels against another rookie this evening as Braxton Ashcraft makes his first career start for the Pirates. The right-hander has appeared in seven games as a reliever this year, logging a 1.54 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with 10 strikeouts in 11.2 innings. The sample remains very limited, however, he’s 86th-percentile in fastball velo and would also rank inside the upper quartile in average exit velo and hard-hit percentage if qualified.
With that said, I feel pretty confident taking Patrick to record under 4.5 hits today at +110 odds. He’s throwing the ball pretty well and the Pirates’ lineup truly struggles to hit more often than not. The value here feels solid enough.
Best bet: Chad Patrick under 4.5 hits allowed (+110)
Click the odds to tail!
