At 7:40 p.m. EST on Monday, the Chicago White Sox host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Rate Field to kick off a three-game inter-league series. The D-Backs are fighting to stay above .500, but will their bats provide enough pop to weather poor pitching and escape the Windy City with a win?
Here’s a White Sox vs. Diamondbacks prediction and pick for tonight’s matchup.
White Sox vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview
Chicago White Sox
As in the last couple of years, it’s been a campaign to forget for the White Sox. They’re 25-53 overall and would possess the MLB’s worst record were it not for the Rockies’ historic struggles. To put it in other words — if the most notable storyline from your season is that the Pope is a fan of your team, it probably hasn’t been a great year in terms on on-field product.
Still, the show must go on. Chicago holds the MLB’s worst AVG and OPS with the third-fewest runs scored. They strike out the fifth-most of any team, but ranking 15th in walks feels like one of few bright spots overall. Only one player, veteran Mike Tauchman, boasts an .800 OPS or better. Three more batters are above the .700 mark, but one of them has seen just 64 at-bats on the campaign. Positives are simply difficult to come by, especially with a middling pitching staff which ranks 22nd in ERA and 25th in WHIP with the second-fewest strikeouts and third-most walks allowed.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks, however, are another story. The team entered the season with serious playoff aspirations and jumped out to a very hot start, though they’re now just 39-38 as they work to climb back up the NL West standings. Injuries have become the story of the year losing ace Corbin Burnes, closer Justin Martinez and now reliever AJ Puk to season-ending elbow surgeries. Now, they’re left at a crossroads between selling at the deadline with next season in mind or trying to remain competitive.
Arizona ranks seventh in AVG with the third-best OPS in the MLB and the third-most runs scored to this point by a double-digit margin. Their high-powered offense also boasts the fifth-most home runs with 110, and they see the ball well with the fourth-most walks and fifth-fewest strikeouts, too. If their pitching staff were both healthier and better, they’d certainly sit among top contenders for a World Series. Unfortunately, the staff ranks 25th in ERA and 22nd in WHIP, though they’re top-18 in both walks allowed and strikeouts.
White Sox vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Diamondbacks are -144 Moneyline favorites while the White Sox are +118 to win outright. The run total sits at 9.5.
The White Sox start Shane Smith, a rookie right-hander with some pretty solid numbers. He’s thrown 72.2 innings with a 2.85 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 66 strikeouts, though his 30 walks are a few more than you’d like to see. On the other side of the matchup is Eduardo Rodriguez, a lefty with a high 5.93 ERA and 1.62 WHIP across 60.2 innings for the Diamondbacks. He’s struck out 64 batters, better than one per inning, but his 11.27 H/9 looks like a career-worst.
Were this most other teams besides the White Sox, I’d target batter lines against Rodriguez pretty heavily. However, I don’t feel great even with the positive matchup for Chicago.
Instead, I’m targeting an alt line of over 5.5 runs for the Diamondbacks in this one. Smith’s raw numbers look good, but he ranks 27th-percentile in hard-hit percentage and 38th-percentile in average exit velocity. To top it off, he’s ninth-percentile in chase percentage and 31st percentile in BB%, so I’d expect the Arizona offense to get the better of him (and the Chicago bullpen) whether it’s through big hits or simply great plate process.
Best bet: ARI Diamondbacks over 5.5 runs (+110)
Click the odds to tail!
