This is the opener of a three-game series in Detroit between the Tigers and visiting Athletics.
Luis Severino is scheduled to pitch for Athletics while Tarik Skubal should get the nod for Detroit.
Athletics at Tigers prediction, preview
Luis Severino used to average 97.7 mph on the fastball and boast a strikeout rate near 30%. The swinging strike rate used to be 13%. Now, it’s 6.8%. Gross. The strikeout rate is only 15.9%. He has done a good job keeping the ball in the yard, though, as he’s allowed seven earned runs in 95.2 innings. The FIP of 3.74 is lower than the 4.42 ERA, primarily due to the 67.4% strand rate and the barrel rate being only 4.4%.
The only discernible split is that he’s been much better on the road, as all seven home runs have come at home and he’s allowed only four earned runs in 38.2 innings on the road.
Severino has allowed more than three earned runs six times, with two of those at eight earned runs. The range of outcomes is extremely high. This will be the first time facing the Tigers this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Tigers have struck out at the sixth-highest rate while having the 13th-best ISO. The wOBA is 14th-best in MLB.
Tarik Skubal is one of, if not, the best pitchers in all of baseball. The strikeout rate is 32.1% while the K-BB% is 28.8%, tops in MLB. The 17.1% swinging strike rate is also best. He is averaging 97.9 mph on the fastball and is sporting a 2.06 ERA, which is bested by the 1.91 FIP. He’s allowed six home runs and walked 12 in 96 innings. The average exit velocity is 85.8 mph.
Skubal has been great against righties while lefties are just happy to be in the box and on tv. Skubal has been good on the road. He’s been untouchable at home.
Skubal has allowed more than three earned runs twice this season. He’s pitched at least seven innings six times, which includes a complete game. There have been six shutouts thrown and Skubal has allowed a total of three earned runs in the last five starts. This will be the first time facing the Athletics this season.
The Athletics have struck out at the 11th-highest rate against left-handed pitching while being sixth in ISO. The wOBA is fourth-best.
As for bullpens, the Athletics have the 27th-lowest FIP while Detroit has the 18th-lowest.
Athletics at Tigers, Best Bet
I smell a good ol’ fashion pitcher’s duel in this one. I have little doubt that Skubal is going to continue doing Skubal things. The question is on the other side. Severino has pitched well on the road, but the bullpen is an issue.
