The NBA Draft has nearly arrived, with organizations set to add their next young talent and attempt to change their trajectory for the better. Soon-to-be rookies will be eagerly awaiting to hear their names called and preparing to have their professional pathway decided for them.
DraftKings Sportsbook is offering a variety of prop bets for the NBA Draft. This includes markets like over/unders for draft position, which player will be selected at specific picks, and even head-to-head markets for which player will be off the board first.
This article will take a look at the head-to-head markets for which players will be drafted first. Here are my favorite picks from the available market.
Thomas Sorber over Asa Newell (-125)
A pair of high-pedigree one-and-done freshmen square off in this market. But I expect Thomas Sorber to have a pretty comfortable gap for where he hears his name called, in contrast to Asa Newell.
Sorber spent last year at Georgetown, averaging 14.5 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 2.0 blocks, and 1.5 steals per game. Standing 6-foot-9 barefoot with a 7-foot-6 wingspan, Sorber is one of the best processors in this class and sees plays before they happen, particularly on the defensive end. A season-ending foot injury cut his collegiate campaign short, but he was producing at the level of Georgetown greats such as Patrick Ewing, Alonzo Mourning, and Greg Monroe. From day one in the NBA, he will be able to do the basic center skills of setting good screens, rebounding the ball at a high rate, and helping to anchor the defense. Sorber has had success in dribble-handoffs and making reads out of the short role, which is a huge factor for diversifying offense, and he showed some willingness as a shooter. He plays the game like a seasoned veteran, and his ability to guard on the perimeter at his size makes him unique. The Philadelphia native is a great blend of a high-floor impact player who still has untapped potential. Expect Sorber to hear his name called in the lottery, and don’t be shocked if he creeps into the top 10.
Asa Newell is a bit more polarizing in his draft outlook. The Montverde product has clear talent, but his fit at the NBA level is a question mark. In his lone year at Georgia, Newell averaged 15.4 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.0 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game. He measured 6-foot-9 at the combine with a wingspan just over 6-foot-11 and a slender frame that could use some added strength. Newell is an excellent offensive rebounder, but nearly half of his points came from putbacks and on dump-offs around the rim. He is a more willing perimeter shooter, but still connected on just 29.2% of his three-point looks, which still won’t cut it at the NBA level. There was hope that he could be fully unleashed at Georgia after sharing the floor at Monteverde with Cooper Flagg and Derik Queen, but there are some pretty clear limitations in his overall skillset. Newell has a solid touch around the rim and good instincts as a cutter, but has little feel as a passer and was surprisingly ineffective in two-man actions. It is fair to question if he will have the strength to survive as a lone big man and if his better path is to be more of a jumbo-sized wing at the NBA level. There is too much talent to ignore for the lefty, but he has one of the wider ranges in this draft class. It would not be a shock if he slides down boards well beyond the lottery on draft night.
It takes just one team to think differently and take a chance on Newell. But Sorber feels to be the better player by a pretty significant consensus and has quite a few fans in NBA front offices. A high-character prospect with the production to match, don’t expect Thomas Sorber to remain on the board very long and be selected before Asa Newell on draft night.
Noa Essengue over Derik Queen (-135)
One of the biggest risers in the predraft process has been Noa Essengue. The 18-year-old is among the youngest players in this draft class and is an incredibly fluid mover at 6-foot-9. Despite his age and the rawness to his game, Essengue has been productive at the professional level and averaged 12.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and 1.4 steals per game with Ratipharm Ulm this season. He also has had the added benefit of continuing to play his professional season while most draft prospects are only going through workouts and interviews. He continues to show some nice flashes, and he fits the direction of the NBA with positionless players and versatility being valued at a premium. While he needs to add strength to his frame, Essengue is not afraid of contact and gets to the free-throw line an absurd 5.6 times per game. He is excellent in transition and projects as a high-level perimeter defender who can generate turnovers at a high rate. The organization that takes a swing on him will need to be patient in his development, but Essengue has the makings of the first name off the board that makes the audience say “Wow” for how high the selection will be.
In contrast, Derik Queen has one of the more unique skill sets in this draft class that will take a specific team and frontcourt pairing to maximize what he can bring to the table. The Maryland product had a successful one-and-done season in which he averaged 16.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 1.9 assists per game. Queen is an older freshman who has already turned 20, and there is some concern if he will be nimble enough to switch on the perimeter or capable of being a rim-protecting anchor on the defensive side of the ball at the NBA level. But he has some impressive touch at his size and an advanced playmaking feel as a big man. This touch has not translated outside of the paint, with him shooting just 20.0% on three-point attempts on limited volume. Measuring at a shade over 6-foot-9, Queen has a knack for getting his hands on rebounds in crowded areas and plays at his own pace in a way that can be viewed either positively or negatively. The talent is too much to overlook, but he has a bizarre combination of skills without a clear path to what his role would be. The biggest Queen supporters would argue he can serve as the hub of an offense in the halfcourt, but his negative assist/turnover ratio and the fact that he tallied one or fewer assists in 19 of the 36 games give me doubt about this.
These are opposite prospect outlooks, with Essengue being able to carve out a role on just about any NBA team while organizations will have to stylistically adapt to Queen to get the most out of him. Expect there to be more takers for the French forward and for there to be legitimate fire to all the smoke for how many organizations have fallen in love with the idea of what he could be as he has skyrocketed up draft boards in recent weeks.
Egor Demin over Kasparas Jakucionis (+170)
Egor Demin and Kasparas Jakucionis hold very similar profiles and concerns as they look to make the NBA leap. Demin feels more like a superstar swing while Jakucionis is more of a high-floor player, but the shooting efficiency will likely make-or-break the outlook for both players.
After being born in Russia and starting his basketball career professionally with Real Madrid, Demin elected to take the collegiate route and committed to BYU. Across his freshman season, he averaged 10.6 points, 5.5 assists, 3.9 rebounds, and 1.2 steals per game. Demin has a case for being the best passer in the draft and does an excellent job rewarding cutters around him. He shoots the ball confidently, but Demin connected on just 41.2% of his shot attempts, 27.3% of his three-point attempts, and shot 69.5% on free throws. Measuring 6-foot-9 and with a guard skillset, Demin is an interesting player. When his shot is falling and he can leverage this as a playmaker, it looks pretty. But he shoots the ball more confidently than he should, and he does not move well on the defensive side of the ball. If his efficiency leaps forward, you can talk yourself into some star potential with Demin. But there will surely be some growing pains as he figures out how to make a strong impact in lower usage roles.
Kasparas Jakucionis was born in Lithuania and played in Barcelona’s youth program before coming to America to play for Illinois this year. Measuring in at just under 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-8 wingspan, he averaged 15.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.7 assists. His efficiency splits are not as worrisome, shooting 44.0% from the field, 31.8% on three-pointers, and 84.5% at the free-throw line. But Jakucionis goes invisible at times, including having four games this season with just three shot attempts. He also tallied the second-most turnovers among the 164 players to attempt over 150 pick-and-rolls and averaged 3.7 per game on the season. Jakucionis has a nice pace that he plays with and is just a notch behind Demin as a passer. He finishes well around the rim and has solid size, but is fairly limited athletically.
These are two players fairly close in their evaluations and with similar concerns. But there is a top-end potential that Demin possesses that I believe teams will talk themselves into. Outside of the first few selections, there are not a ton of star swings in this draft. Demin’s flashes when he has it all going make him easy to believe in, and there are quite a few desperate teams in the NBA right now. While I feel less passionate about this pick than the first two above, getting +170 odds for Demin to be selected above Jakuicionis is worth taking a swing on.
