The NBA Draft has nearly arrived, with plenty of young basketball players set to have their professional pathway decided for them. Teams around the league are zeroing in on their top targets in what will be a monumental day for plenty of franchises.
DraftKings Sportsbook offers a variety of prop bets for the NBA Draft. This includes markets like over/unders for draft position, which player will be selected at specific picks, and even head-to-head markets for which player will come off the board first.
This article will take a look at which players are the best bets to be first-round picks with good value in mind.
Walter Clayton Jr & Drake Powell Parlay (-149)
The -550 odds for Walter Clayton Jr and -240 odds for Drake Powell are each steep, but parlaying the pair of talented guards gets the number down to -149 on DraftKings Sportsbook. This is a much more tolerable price point for two players I am confident will be first-round picks.
Clayton Jr. was one of the brightest stars in the NCAA Tournament and helped his draft stock immensely by leading Florida to an NCAA Championship. Beyond that run, he averaged 18.3 points, 4.2 assists, and 3.7 rebounds while shooting 38.6% from beyond the three-point arc on 7.8 perimeter shots per game across the season overall. Measuring in at 6-foot-2 barefoot at the combine, size is a bit of a concern and he is already 22 years old. Still, Clayton Jr. is one of the best shot-makers in this class and showed his ability both on and off the ball. He also generated more than one steal per game in the last three years of his collegiate career and is smart with his hands on this side of the floor.
It would not be a complete shock to me if Clayton Jr. sneaks into the late lottery, and he should be a sure bet for being selected in the 20s. He has provided a significant sample size in college and there is just too much production to overlook. Clayton Jr. is the type of player a team can fall in love with and he should have no problem hearing his name called in the first round.
The outlook is much different for Drake Powell. The North Carolina product entered with strong pedigree as a recruit, ranking 14th out of last year’s class per ESPN. However, he underwhelmed in his one-and-done season, averaging just 7.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.1 assists in his 25.6 minutes per game. Powell still shot 37.9% from beyond the three-point arc and measured 6-foot-5.5 with a 7-foot wingspan at the combine.
North Carolina had team-wide issues this past season which excuse some of Powell’s struggles. He primarily plays off-ball, and the Tar Heels did not do a good enough job creating shots for him. Powell still made his impact in flashes but if things had gone well this season, he likely would have been a lottery talent — I expect some teams to still view this as potential value. There is a clear pathway to an NBA role for Powell as a scrappy defender and high-IQ cutter who can knock down three-pointers. Every team continues to target this archetype of player so expect Powell to still hear his name in the first round, even if it is later than most would have guessed coming into the season.
Ryan Kalkbrenner (-115)
Several notable big men battle it out at the end of the first round, but I like Ryan Kalkbrenner to make the cut. Maxime Raynaud, Hansen Yang, Johni Broome, and Yanic Konan-Niederhauser will all be in the same general range, but Kalkbrenner checks the most boxes for what teams will likely look at. A five-year standout at Creighton, Kalkbrenner is coming off a season in which he averaged 19.2 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks per game. Measuring 7-foot-1 with a 7-foot-6 wingspan, Kalkbrenner also expanded his range to the perimeter this season, shooting 34.4% on 1.7 three-point attempts per game.
There will be limitations in Kalkbrenner’s usage and role, but there is a comfort level that his sample size in college should provide over several names in the same range. Just one year ago, we saw Zach Edey skyrocket up draft boards as the ninth overall pick with a similar profile. While Edey was a bit more accomplished, there were also more questions about his NBA fit in comparison to Kalkbrenner. The Boston Celtics have been heavily linked to Kalkbrenner with the 28th overall pick, and he would make a great deal of sense with Al Horford and Luke Kornet heading into free agency. Expect a few of these big men to make the cut and hear their names called in the first round, with Kalkbrenner being a part of this.
Ben Saraf (-105)
One advantage that some of the international prospects have in the pre-draft process is that they are still playing live basketball. While the collegiate players go through workouts and interviews, Ben Saraf continues to suit up for Ratiopharm Ulm in the Basketball Bundesliga and is making the most of the opportunity. He plays on the same team as projected lottery pick Noa Essengue, who has also seen his stock rise in recent weeks. But Saraf has closed the year strong and is coming off a 20-point, four-rebound, four-assist performance in the BBL finals.
In either case, teams will view the overall sample size over just the past few games, but the chance to add to this is valuable. Saraf stands 6-foot-6 with a wingspan just shy of 6-foot-9. Across the season overall, the 19-year-old has averaged 12.8 points, 4.6 assists, 2.2 rebounds, and 1.3 steals per game. His shooting is a concern, connecting on just 22.2% of his three-point shots, but Saraf can make any pass on the floor and has some advanced footwork off the dribble. Saraf reads the pick-and-roll better than any player in this draft outside of Dylan Harper, and Goran Dragic is a common player comparison Saraf has received.
While there are questions about his athleticism and shooting, Saraf looks like a first-round pick and feels like a first-round pick. Expect his late-season surge to help his case and for the lefty to hear his name called during night one of the draft.
