The two best words in sports: Game 7. The Indiana Pacers have pushed the Oklahoma City Thunder to seven games despite being massive underdogs. This will mark the 20th Game 7 in NBA Finals history.
Oddsmakers have continually been skeptical of the Pacers throughout this playoff run and in this Finals matchup. The Thunder opened up the series as -650 favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook and -130 odds on the -2.5 series spread. Oklahoma City has been favored by as many as 11.5 points in a game during this series.
The Thunder enter as 7.5-point favorites and -285 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Pacers hold +230 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 214.5.
Don’t be shocked if there is some line movement leading up until the opening tip, but here are my favorite prop bets for the fateful Game 7 matchup.
Pascal Siakam Over 31.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-105)
There is still some concern with Tyrese Haliburton’s status. The Pacers’ star is battling a calf issue and benefited from only needing to play 23 minutes in the Game 6 blowout. For the most part, Haliburton looked like himself from a movement standpoint and finished with 14 points and five assists. Still, Haliburton cannot do it by himself, so expect Pascal Siakam to take on some additional production in Game 7.
Siakam averaged 20.2 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game in the regular season. He’s averaging 20.7 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game in the playoffs. Across the opening six games of the Finals, Siakam is averaging 19.8 points, 8.3 rebounds and 4.0 assists. He has tallied over 31.5 combined points, rebounds and assists in four of the six games.
While his output has been strong, Siakam is still leaving some production on the table, averaging 6.2 potential assists and 12.2 rebounding chances during the Finals. The forward is a former champion that should benefit from his previous Finals experience. Count on Siakam stepping up on the bigges stage of his career. He very well could approach this line with just his scoring if the game script breaks correctly or Haliburton is limited. Expect him to record over 31.5 combined points, rebounds and assists for the fifth time in this series.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 Points (-125)
The Thunder have more depth and flexibility in their rotations than most NBA Finals teams we have seen in recent years. But there is no doubt that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still at the epicenter of all of the production. He is coming off a Game 6 stinker in which he was limited to 21 points, two assists and eight turnovers while shooting 7-for-15 from the field. This marked the most turnovers in any game in the playoffs.
But the MVP and scoring champion has showcased plenty of mental resilience throughout his career and will be quick to wipe away this poor performance. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 30.5 points per game in the series and has tallied over 32.5 points in three of the six games. He averaged 32.7 points per game in the regular season and is averaging exactly 30 points per game in the postseason. The three-time All-Star is also averaging 34.3 points per game in games at home during this series.
Gilgeous-Alexander is logging the highest usage rate in the NBA Finals at 33.8% and is averaging a series-high 31.5 combined field goal and free throw attempts per game. The Thunder star will see plenty of shot volume, and Indiana still has had no real answer for him. The Pacers’ greatest success has been speeding up the game and forcing turnovers, but Gilgeous-Alexander has still mostly had his way when things are settled in the halfcourt.
On a youthful Thunder team, Gilgeous-Alexander has been the calming influence, so expect this to continue to be the case in the biggest game of their careers. Game 7 is where stars shine the brightest, and Gilgeous-Alexander has an MVP trophy on the shelf for a reason. Expect the Thunder to lean on how they got here and for Gilgeous-Alexander to cruise past 32.5 points in this Game 7 matchup with plenty of shot volume on his plate.
Andrew Nembhard Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+150)
Andrew Nembhard continues to be one of the biggest unsung heroes on this Pacers team. The Gonzaga product has stepped up in a major way all postseason. He has been the glue that has held the team together for stretches on both sides of the ball and has seen some notable statistical growth in the playoffs. Across the regular season, Nembhard averaged 10 points, 5.0 assists and 3.3 rebounds per game while shooting just 29.1% on three-point attempts. Since the postseason started, he is averaging 12.4 points, 4.6 assists and 3.1 rebounds while connecting on 45.8% of his perimeter shots.
Indiana plays team-oriented basketball, but there are times when someone needs to just create a bucket in the halfcourt. Nembhard has not been afraid of the moment and stepped into these shoes during the postseason run. With Haliburton’s injury in mind, don’t be shocked if Nembhard sees his offensive role scaled up even further. The scrappy guard has shot 9-for-23 (39.1%) from deep in this series and connected on over 1.5 made three-pointers in three of the six games. Looking at the playoffs as a whole, Nembhard has made at least one three-pointer in 18 of the 22 games and tallied over 1.5 made three-pointers in 12 of the 22 games.
Getting +150 odds for Nembhard to connect with over 1.5 made three-pointers is great value based on how he has produced all postseason. He has hit some big shots across the past two playoff runs and will be asked to continue this in Game 7. After shooting 3-for-5 from deep in Game 6, count on Nembhard carrying over the momentum and capitalizing on his opportunities with the championship on the line.
