On a team built around pace and perimeter scoring, Holmgren is the glue — the guy who lets the Thunder switch up styles on the fly and punish smaller matchups inside. Going into tonight’s Game 7, he’s the X-factor who can tilt the series with his rebounding and defense as much as his scoring. If the Thunder want to close this out, they’ll lean on Holmgren to own the paint, challenge every shot, and gobble up boards, and he’s proven all playoffs that he’s built for these moments. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite Chet Holmgren bet based on my Thunder vs. Pacers prediction and pick.
Best Chet Holmgren prop bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Chet Holmgren o9.5 rebounds (-115)
Chet Holmgren has been on an absolute tear in these playoffs, and tonight’s Game 7 sets up perfectly for him to crush his rebounding prop. The Thunder big man is averaging 9.2 boards per game this postseason, hauling in contested misses at a ridiculous 64.1% contested rebound rate. That’s the highest of any player left in these Finals, and it underscores just how effective he’s been boxing out and cleaning the glass.
Holmgren thrives at home—he’s grabbed at least 10 rebounds in four of the Thunder’s last six games at Paycom Center—and Indiana’s interior defense simply hasn’t been able to contain him. The Pacers give up 46.8 rebounds per game on the road (26th in the league), including 11.7 offensive boards, which is key for Holmgren. His quick-twitch second jump is generating 3.2 offensive rebounds per 36 minutes in this series, and Indiana’s switch-heavy scheme often leaves their guards trying to put a body on him.
With Myles Turner spending so much time outside the paint as a stretch big (just 3.8 contested rebound attempts per game), Holmgren will have the advantage on virtually every missed shot. Even if this game slows to a grind, it plays right into Holmgren’s hands—more long misses, more loose-ball situations, more of Holmgren going up and snatching them with his ridiculous 7-foot-6 wingspan.
