The final Signature Event of the 2025 PGA TOUR wraps up on Sunday, and Tommy Fleetwood will be looking for his first-career win after shooting a 63 in the third round. He currently leads by three strokes over Keegan Bradlay and Russell Henley. Being that he’s a -175 favorite to win, I have decided not to touch the outright market.
Below I detail my two favorite bets for the final round.
Davis Thompson to finish Top 20 +125
Right now Thompson is T22 and sits one shot back of the top-20 at five-under par. It’s been a pretty average week considering how he’s played from tee-to-green. Thompson ranks third in the field this week in SG: Tee-to-Green behind only Russell Henley and Tommy Fleetwood, averaging 2.21 strokes per round.
Unfortunately for him, he’s lost 1.95, 1.91 and 1.21 strokes putting, respectively, in each three of his rounds so far. Thompson is certainly nothing special with the flat stick in general, but he only needs to be slightly below average on Sunday with the way he’s hitting the ball right now to move up the leaderboard.
At +125, and with all the scores so bunched up from T22 to T5, I will gladly take my chances on Thompson finding some luck with the putter.
Patrick Cantlay over Rory McIlroy +115
McIlroy has simply not looked right since winning the Masters. He recently stated that it’s been hard for him to re-focus after becoming just the sixth golfer in history to complete the career grand slam. McIlroy also had the issue with his driver at the PGA Championship where they banned it shortly before the tournament started. Just add everything up, and something is a bit off right now for the World No. 2.
The Northern Irishman opened the Travelers this week with a bogey-free 64 and looked great in the process. However, he’s since gone just one-under over the past two rounds combined, while losing strokes from tee-to-green in both. Cantlay has been better from tee-to-green than McIlroy this week, and then really found something off-the-tee on Saturday, gaining 1.57 strokes for his third round.
Cantlay loves the TPC River Highlands, having posted back-to-back top-five finishes here the past two years, while finishing no worse than T15 in any of his previous five starts before that. McIlroy could obviously shoot a low round at this course in his sleep, but I question his motivation right now and do not like what I’ve seen from him the past couple days.
Give me Cantlay at plus-money here.