On Saturday, Major League Baseball diamonds are full of exciting matchups with all 30 teams in action at some point during the day and night on Saturday. After a busy afternoon, six games are scheduled for under the lights. Let’s dive into those matchups and snag a few starting pitcher prop bets that make sense for this Saturday. After checking out the options and considering the matchup, environment and recent form, my top plays of the day come from Mick Abel, Noah Cameron and Brandon Walter.
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Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Mick Abel under 4.5 strikeouts (-150)
I get the hype around Abel, and he’s a very exciting prospect to look forward to watching for many years to come if you’re a Phillies fan. He has electric stuff and a high strikeout ceiling in any matchup, but I think this line is set a little too high for him in this matchup against the Mets.
Abel showed his upside in his first MLB start, stacking up nine strikeouts against the Pirates. He went back to the minors for a few turns through the rotation and has rejoined the major league team for his last three starts. In each of those outings, though, he has gone under this strikeout total. He had two strikeouts against the Blue Jays, three against the Cubs and three against the Marlins. He has looked sharp for the most part in those outings, but he has done so without piling up a ton of Ks.
The Mets typically do a good job at strikeout suppression. They have the eighth-lowest K% in the majors on the season, and even during their current skid, they have only averaged 8.5 strikeouts per game over the last two weeks. Abel has only been pitching about five innings per game, so I don’t think he’ll be around long enough to get five strikeouts against the Mets.
The potential is definitely there for the rookie, but I like the odds here that he will go under this number, which seems a strikeout too high based on his recent showings and his matchup with the Mets.
Noah Cameron over 17.5 outs recorded (+105)
Cameron has gone only 2-2 in his seven starts for the Royals, but he has pitched very well with a 1.91 ERA, 3.64 FIP and 0.90 WHIP. He has been helped by an incredibly low .191 BABIP that could indicate some regression is coming, but part of that is due to the kind of weak contact he typically allows.
Cameron has gotten through at least six innings in five of his seven starts, falling just one out short in the only outing in which he gave up multiple runs. He gave up zero or one run in his first five starts in the majors, got knocked around by New York, and then bounced back against the A’s in his most recent outing.
He isn’t typically a high-volume strikeout pitcher, which enables him to be more efficient with his pitches and work deeper into games. The 25-year-old lefty has been a huge help to the Royals while Cole Ragans (shoulder) is out and seems to be securing a long-term spot in the starting rotation.
The Padres have been slightly above average on offense lately, but they have struggled with lefties at times this season. They rank in the bottom-10 teams in the majors in both batting average and wOBA against southpaws, so Cameron should be able to hold them in check Saturday, hopefully getting through at least six innings and going over this out line for a win for my starting pitcher prop bets.
Brandon Walter over 4.5 strikeouts (-120)
Walter is another young lefty who is helping his team through injury issues and has looked very sharp since getting his promotion to the majors. He has made three starts with the ‘Stros and picked up at least five strikeouts in each outing, and I think he’ll make it four in a row to go over this strikeout line in the third of my starting pitcher prop bets for this Saturday.
He had exactly five strikeouts in road games against the Rays and Guardians and then went off for nine strikeouts in his most recent outing, last Sunday against the Twins. Showing off his good control, he has only issued one walk in those three outings, spanning 17 2/3 innings. I higlighted him as a DFS option in my top targets of the day as well.
Walter isn’t a top prospect like Abel or even Cameron, but he has made the most of his chance this year in Houston. He climbed through the Red Sox minor league system and made it to the majors for nine games out of the bullpen in 2023. He had an ugly 6.26 ERA and 5.60 FIP and then missed all of 2024 with a rotator cuff injury.
After signing with the Astros as a minor league free agent, he had a 2.08 ERA and 3.51 FIP in his 47 2/3 innings in Triple-A with the Sugar Land Space Cowboys. He had 49 strikeouts with a 27.5% K% that he has translated exactly to the majors, where he has 19 total strikeouts with a 27.5% K%.
Boosting Walter’s strikeout potential in this matchup is the fact that the Angels strike out more often than any other team in the majors. They have a 26.6% strikeout rate on the season and also lead the majors with a 28.5% strikeout rate against lefties.
Based on his success and the Angels’ strikeout tendencies, Walter should be able to get at least a handful of Ks on Saturday night in Anaheim.
