Some betting cards are fun to hold onto long-term, whether those are picks for an award winner or a league champion. Sometimes, though, it’s also fun to just take a quick-hit pick where the results are virtually instant. The MLB has done a lot to speed up the game over the last few years, adding in the pitch clock and trying to make games end faster. However, even with the average game time dropping, one of the most popular quick ways to jump on the board for baseball picks is still an NRFI (no run first inning) prop bet.
Here are my favorite spots for a NRFI bet on Saturday’s packed slate.
Boston Red Sox at San Francisco Giants (-135)
The Red Sox took the first game of this three-game set on Friday night, and on Saturday afternoon, they’ll send Brayan Bello to the mound against Landen Roupp. Both pitchers are a little underrated and in a pitcher-friendly park, I think we can get an early NRFI hit at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Roupp was knocked around in his last start by the Dodgers, but before that, he had allowed only eight earned runs over his previous seven outings. He has a 3.99 ERA and 3.86 FIP on the season. He has not allowed a run in the first inning in 10 of his 14 starts (71%).
Bello has also been pitching well lately, with just nine runs allowed in 28 innings over his last five starts, and he has not given up a run in the first inning of any of those five outings. He’ll probably have to face former teammate Rafael Devers in the first inning, but Bello’s recent success indicates he should be able to get through the first unscathed.
The run total for this game indicates it should be low scoring at just 7.5, and both offenses have been inconsistent over the last few weeks. The Giants rank in the top 10 of NRFI this season, while the Red Sox rank in the middle of the pack.
Kansas City Royals at San Diego Padres (-130)
The Royals and Padres have both had their struggles at the plate over the last few weeks, and both teams have done a good job at holding their opponents to no runs in the first inning.
The Royals have the best NRFI against them in the majors, while the Padres rank No. 6. I picked this NRFI yesterday and Bobby Witt Jr. destroyed it with a first-inning home run. The teams didn’t score any more runs until the fifth inning though. I still trust the numbers enough to come back to this matchup again on Saturday night at Petco Park where Dylan Cease faces Noah Cameron.
Cease took the loss last Monday after starting off strong against the Dodgers. While he has a 4.69 ERA, he has only given up a run in the first inning in three of his last 12 outings. He has a 3.00 ERA at home with a 3.12 FIP, and most of his bad outings have come on the road, like his last one in Los Angeles.
He should be able to bounce back from that in this outing against the Royals, who have scored the second-fewest runs in the majors over the last two weeks.
Noah Cameron is the lesser-known of the two pitchers on the mound in this matchup, but he has been excellent since joining the Royals’ rotation. He made a spot start at the end of April and then claimed his regular spot in mid-May. In his seven starts, he is 2-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 3.64 FIP while allowing zero or one run in six of his seven outings. He has only given up a run in the first inning in one of his seven starts.
While it isn’t exactly cold weather, the forecast isn’t as hitter-friendly as the other spots on Saturday night, which is why it’s one of my top NRFI prop bets to target this Saturday.
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels (-130)
The Astros and Angels meet in Anaheim in this AL West matchup, and I think this is the other best spot to look for NRFI on Saturday night. The pitching matchup of Brandon Walter and Jose Soriano may not feature known headliners, but both players have been effective lately and should be able to get through the first without incident.
Soriano has been up and down this season but is coming off a dominant outing in New York against the Yankees. He has given up zero or one run in three of his last four starts and has given up no runs in the first inning in 11 of his 15 outings this season.
I highlighted the Astros’ Walter as my one of my top MLB DFS targets for the day, and he has only allowed three runs in his 17 2/3 innings this season. None of those have come in the first inning.
The Astros started the series Friday with back-to-back home runs, but I think the scoring will start slower on Saturday night with these two underrated starters putting up zeros in the first inning.
